Fresh polling released Monday shows Democrat Roy Cooper holding a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina's open Senate race, just weeks before the November midterms. The Trafalgar Group survey puts Cooper at 48.8 percent support, with Whatley trailing at 40.9 percent—a margin that stretches to nearly 8 points.
The poll also breaks down support by age and race, revealing a stark generational divide. Among voters aged 18 to 29, Cooper commands 69 percent support, and he leads with 68.4 percent among those 30 to 39. Whatley, by contrast, performs best with seniors: 50.2 percent of voters 65 and older back him, while only 39.9 percent support Cooper.
Cooper also enjoys overwhelming support from Black voters, who made up 20.5 percent of the survey sample. He draws 67.1 percent of that group, compared to just 20.8 percent for Whatley.
The Trafalgar results echo a separate survey from East Carolina University's Center for Survey Research released last Thursday, which also showed Cooper ahead by 7 points, 50 to 43, with 6 percent undecided. Aggregated data from The Hill's election partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gives Cooper a 48.9 percent probability of winning if the election were held today, versus 40.5 percent for Whatley.
Both candidates are vying to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a race that holds significant implications for the Senate balance of power. Democrats need to net four seats to regain the majority, and they see North Carolina as a prime pickup opportunity. Cooper's growing lead has already prompted some GOP groups to shift resources elsewhere.
Chris Cooper, a professor of public policy at Western Carolina University (no relation to the candidate), told The Hill that North Carolina's electorate isn't necessarily turning bluer, but rather that a balance exists in the state's rural areas. The state has a Democratic governor in Josh Stein, some Democratic state officials, but a Republican majority in the state House.
The professor also noted that Democrats are benefiting from Whatley's relative anonymity in the state. Whatley, who served as RNC chair from 2024 to 2025 and previously led the North Carolina GOP, is less well-known than Cooper, a four-time attorney general and two-term governor.
Whatley has received an endorsement from Tillis, backing the former RNC chief in the open race. But the polling suggests that support hasn't translated into a competitive standing yet.
The Trafalgar survey was conducted Oct. 8-10 and included 1,091 respondents, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
