House members who abandoned safe seats to run for higher office are getting shellacked in primaries this year, with a loss rate that could hit a modern high. Through June, 11 of the 18 members who have already faced voters have lost—a brutal 61 percent failure rate that underscores a deepening anti-Washington mood in both parties.
On the Republican side, the carnage includes Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), a onetime leadership favorite who finished third in a four-way gubernatorial primary despite a massive war chest and a perch at the center of major legislative negotiations. In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) became the first Trump-endorsed candidate to lose a statewide primary this cycle, falling to GOP challenger Zach Lahn. President Trump later admitted he lacked the “proper information” when he made the endorsement.
Democrats are not immune. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) both lost the Illinois Senate primary to Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), despite Krishnamoorthi’s heavy spending advantage. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) rode social media fame to a competitive showing in the Texas Senate primary but still came up short.
“Serving in the House is not viewed as a particularly big asset, and primary voters don’t seem to be excited to reward members with a different job,” Johnson told The Hill after his defeat. He added that while House Republicans have a long list of legislative accomplishments, “these are really complicated issues. I don’t think the normals are messaging as well as angry voices on the extremes.”
The trend is part of a broader anti-incumbent, anti-establishment wave that is reshaping primaries across the country. Iowa state Rep. Brent Siegrist (R) told local media that Feenstra’s loss reflected voters “fed up with everything from gas prices to Iran or whatever it may be,” and looking for someone outside the establishment.
The phenomenon is also driving a surge in House members willing to take the leap. According to Ballotpedia data, only 16 House members sought higher office in 2024, 17 in 2022, and 12 in 2020. This cycle, the number has jumped to 29—including now-New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D). The vast majority are Republicans, many of whom appear to be bracing for a tough House map and a likely minority in the next Congress.
Yet even a Trump endorsement—once considered the gold standard in GOP primaries—is no guarantee. All six House Republicans who have won their Senate primaries this cycle had Trump’s backing, but Feenstra’s loss showed the limits of that power. Meanwhile, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) lost the attorney general runoff after Trump allies boosted his opponent, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) blamed her gubernatorial loss partly on her push to release Jeffrey Epstein files—a stance Trump had urged her to abandon.
When all outstanding primaries in July, August, and September are counted, the overall loss rate for House members seeking higher office this cycle is projected to land between 45 percent and 58 percent. That would rival or exceed the 58 percent rate in 2020—a cycle that included four House Democrats who ran for president—and far surpass the 31 percent in 2024 and 33 percent in 2018.
The message from primary voters is clear: Washington experience is no longer a selling point. As Johnson put it, “House members have a national profile and network, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Voters want someone who isn’t part of the system.”
