A fresh Suffolk University survey released Tuesday shows Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by 7 percentage points in the Michigan Senate race, with 47 percent of likely voters backing El-Sayed compared to 40 percent for Rogers.
The poll, conducted September 16-20 among 500 likely Michigan voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It underscores El-Sayed's momentum less than two months before Election Day.
Partisan lines remain stark: 81 percent of Democrats support El-Sayed, while 90 percent of Republicans back Rogers. But the Democrat's advantage extends to key demographic groups. El-Sayed performs better among younger voters, women, and Black voters, while Rogers leads among older voters, men, and white voters.
Most notably, El-Sayed holds a commanding 16-point lead among unaffiliated voters, according to Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos.
“Abdul El-Sayed is popular with unaffiliated Michigan voters,” Paleologos said in a statement. “That, in addition to the unpopularity of recent tariffs imposed on Canada and voter unhappiness over the possibility of data centers in Michigan, has caused a massive shift to Democratic candidates among independents compared to 2024.”
The survey is the latest in a series of polls showing El-Sayed with a narrow edge. Earlier this month, a Washington Post poll put him up by 3 points, and an Emerson College survey showed a 2-point lead. The Suffolk results suggest that advantage may be widening.
With just six weeks until the midterm election, El-Sayed has ramped up his campaign. Last week he traveled to Washington, D.C., to meet with senators on Capitol Hill. On Tuesday, former Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to appear alongside him at a campaign event in Detroit.
In an interview with NewsNation, The Hill's broadcast partner, El-Sayed said he aims to broaden his coalition to include voters who backed Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
“She speaks to a community of people I really want to make sure we are speaking to,” El-Sayed said. “I want to be able to build the kind of coalition that includes Vice President Harris, that includes Bernie Sanders, and that brings folks together around what we can build together.”
The race has drawn national attention, with Republicans increasingly concerned about holding the seat. As Rogers faces a narrowing path, Democrats see an opportunity to flip a key Senate seat. El-Sayed has also made headlines for his sharp criticism of the MAGA movement, recently saying it is eating itself after Tucker Carlson backed him over Rogers.
Meanwhile, the political landscape in Michigan remains fluid, with issues like tariffs and data centers resonating with voters. Recent events, such as an F-16 training crash in Michigan, have also kept the state in the news.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates are expected to intensify their efforts. The Suffolk poll provides a snapshot of a race that could determine control of the Senate.
