Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed has opened a 7-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's hotly contested open Senate race, according to a new poll that suggests the progressive candidate is successfully uniting his party after a divisive primary.
The Susquehanna Polling & Research survey, released Tuesday, shows El-Sayed with 46 percent support among likely voters, compared to Rogers's 39 percent, with 9 percent undecided and 4 percent backing another candidate. The poll underscores the competitiveness of a battleground state that Donald Trump narrowly carried in 2024 by just 1 percentage point.
El-Sayed's path to the nomination was anything but smooth. He narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in a primary that laid bare ideological fractures within the state's Democratic Party. Now, the challenge is winning over constituencies that largely backed Stevens, particularly Black voters in Detroit and its suburbs—a group that will be pivotal in November as Democrats seek to hold the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters.
While the survey does not break down the head-to-head matchup by race, it does show El-Sayed commanding a dominant 62 percent to 24 percent advantage in Detroit and the surrounding Democratic strongholds. That strength is complemented by strong party loyalty: El-Sayed captures 91 percent of self-identified Democrats, while Rogers takes 90 percent of Republicans. Among independents—a crucial swing bloc in a state known for tight elections—El-Sayed leads 46 percent to 24 percent.
The poll also indicates that El-Sayed's populist, anti-establishment message is resonating with voters who prioritize economic concerns. Inflation and the economy rank as the top issue for 34 percent of voters, and among that group, El-Sayed leads Rogers 47 percent to 38 percent.
Still, both candidates face significant unfavorable ratings. Forty-five percent of respondents view El-Sayed unfavorably, against 31 percent favorable; Rogers's numbers are 37 percent unfavorable and 28 percent favorable. Notably, even among voters who disapprove of Trump's performance and hold negative views of both nominees, El-Sayed holds a 26-to-15 percent edge.
The survey, conducted August 11-17 among 800 likely voters, arrives as national Democrats watch Michigan closely—not only for the Senate seat but also for broader trends in the Midwest. El-Sayed's ability to maintain this lead will depend on his continued appeal to independents and his success in shoring up support among Black voters, a demographic that could decide the outcome.
With control of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance, both campaigns are expected to pour resources into the state. Rogers, a former congressman and FBI agent, has sought to tie El-Sayed to the left wing of the Democratic Party, while El-Sayed has framed the race as a choice between his working-class agenda and Rogers's ties to Washington establishment politics.
