The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Thursday adjusted its ratings for the Texas and Iowa gubernatorial contests, signaling improved prospects for Democratic challengers in both Republican-leaning states.
In Texas, the race between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa shifted from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican." Cook's Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor described Hinojosa as "surprisingly competitive" against Abbott, noting her recent ad campaign targeting Abbott's acceptance of campaign contributions from data centers. However, Taylor cautioned that Hinojosa must "substantially" boost her fundraising to remain competitive through November.
An Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey from August showed Abbott leading Hinojosa 49% to 45% among likely Texas voters. If Abbott wins, he would become the state's longest-serving governor and extend the GOP's 30-year hold on the office.
In Iowa, the race has moved from "toss up" to "lean Democrat" in Cook's latest analysis. Democratic nominee Rob Sand, the state auditor, has opened a "consistent lead outside of the margin of error" in both public and private polling against Republican Zach Lahn, according to Taylor. An August Emerson/Nexstar poll found Sand ahead 48% to 43%, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.
Sand is the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, and the state hasn't elected a Democratic governor in two decades. During his auditor campaigns, Sand courted GOP and independent voters by highlighting his bowhunting background and willingness to challenge his own party. Lahn, meanwhile, has leaned into his six-generation Iowan roots and positioned himself as an anti-establishment Republican.
Despite the favorable rating shift, Cook does not expect the Iowa race to be a blowout for Democrats, given the state's recent voting history. The report still sees "an edge" for the party in some prominent races. The same analysis also moved the Senate races in both states to "toss ups," reflecting broader Democratic momentum in these battlegrounds.
For more on the shifting Senate landscape, see our coverage of Texas and Iowa Senate races being reclassified. Additionally, the Democrats' recent polling edge in midterm congressional races may be influencing these gubernatorial adjustments.
