A new AP-NORC poll released ahead of this year's midterm elections shows an electorate hungry for disruption, with 80 percent of registered voters saying they want either "complete and total upheaval" or "substantial change" in the way the country is governed. The survey underscores deep dissatisfaction with the status quo in Washington and signals potential headwinds for the party in power.
The desire for change cuts across party lines. Among Democrats, 97 percent want major change, as do 90 percent of independents. Even a majority of Republicans—58 percent—say they want significant change, though only 13 percent of GOP voters back "complete and total upheaval." The findings suggest that while Republicans are less radical in their demands, they are far from satisfied with the current direction.
President Trump's job approval stands at just 36 percent in the AP-NORC survey, with 64 percent disapproving. That weakness at the top of the ticket could drag down Republican candidates in November. With Republicans controlling both the House and Senate, voters seeking change may turn to Democrats as the main alternative. Registered voters in the poll preferred Democratic control of the House by a 9-point margin and the Senate by 8 points.
However, Democrats are not overwhelmingly popular themselves. Just four in ten voters have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, barely better than the president's standing. The anti-incumbent mood could explain why several Senate races are tighter than expected, even in states that have traditionally leaned Republican or Democratic.
In Kansas, a state Trump won by 16 points in 2024, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is in a close race with Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton. According to Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, Marshall has a 65 percent chance of winning reelection but trails by 0.9 percent in the polling average. Similarly, in Minnesota, a state Vice President Harris won by 4 points in 2024, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads Republican former NFL reporter Michelle Tafoya by just 3.7 points in DDHQ's average, despite an 82 percent chance of winning.
Minnesota Democrats have faced scrutiny over a healthcare fraud scheme in the state that led to 15 indictments. Republicans, including Trump, have blamed Gov. Tim Walz's administration for the scandal, and polls suggest Flanagan, as lieutenant governor, may have taken a hit. The race remains one to watch as voters weigh their options.
The AP-NORC survey also reveals deep pessimism about the future of American politics. Only 21 percent of voters are optimistic about the future of the Democratic Party, and 23 percent feel the same about the Republican Party. Just 10 percent are optimistic about the state of U.S. politics overall, while 67 percent are somewhat or very pessimistic. This gloom extends across the electorate, with little faith in either party to improve the political climate.
As midterms approach, the poll suggests that voters are not just looking for a change in policy but a fundamental shift in how Washington operates. With Trump's approval low and Democrats holding a generic ballot lead, the environment appears favorable for Democrats, but their own unpopularity could complicate their path to victory. The coming months will test whether either party can channel voter anger into a compelling vision for the future.
