President Trump is celebrating another primary victory, this time dispatching incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). Earlier this month, he pushed out Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). No president has ever intervened in his own party's primaries with such success. But primaries are not general elections, and winning in November is what counts. Trump could be setting himself up for trouble from a senator not even on the ballot.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Most seats are safe, but the party holds several that are at risk. The open North Carolina seat is likely to flip to Democrats. In Maine, Democrat Graham Platner has never trailed Sen. Susan Collins in any poll, despite his buffoonery. Cook and RealClearPolitics rate Maine as a toss-up, but that seems generous.
With Republicans down to 51 seats assuming Democratic wins in those races, control will hinge on Ohio, Texas, and Michigan. Both Cook and RealClear rate Ohio and Michigan as toss-ups. Cook has Texas as lean Republican, while RealClear calls it a toss-up.
In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost re-election in 2024 but ran ahead of Kamala Harris, is running again. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) has won statewide by large margins as secretary of State. Polls show Husted with a narrow lead, but the seat should probably be lean Republican.
But in Texas, Trump may have won the primary but lost the general. Limited general election polling shows Cornyn running 1-2 points better than Trump's pick, Ken Paxton, against Democrat James Talarico. The RealClear average gives Talarico a slight edge, mostly due to a suspicious University of Texas poll giving him a 7-8 point lead. The race is a dead heat.
Michigan could bail out Republicans. Former Wayne County health official Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads the Democratic field, but he's a headache for his party due to questions about his public health background, his endorsements, and his weakness with Jewish voters. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), who barely lost in 2024, holds a lead over all Democratic contenders, especially El-Sayed.
Both parties face similar problems in Texas and Michigan. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since 1994, though Beto O'Rourke came within 3 points in 2018. Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994, despite winning three gubernatorial races.
At first glance, winning just one of those three seats would give Republicans 50 seats, with Vice President Vance breaking ties. But Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) could change that. A switch to the Democratic caucus would flip control. Murkowski has already mused about leaving the GOP. While she's framed it in policy terms, the real calculus is power: joining the minority party doesn't help Alaska, but turning the minority into the majority could be very profitable.
Alaska is an odd state. Though reliably Republican for president, it has a history of electing independents to the Senate and governor. Voters care most about federal largesse and defending the state's unique interests. Murkowski has already faced Trump down and won. In 2022, she beat his backed candidate in the jungle primary and each round of ranked-choice voting, winning by 7 points. In 2010, she ran a write-in campaign against Tea Party insurgent Joe Miller and won by over 10,000 votes. She also voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges.
Trump's primary victories may look like wins, but they could set the stage for a Senate that slips from his grasp. Murkowski's potential switch is the wild card that could flip the chamber, and she's shown she's not afraid to defy him.
