Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) secured the Republican nomination for Arizona governor Tuesday, defeating primary rival Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) in a race that tested Trump’s influence in a state he carried twice. Biggs will now face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in what is shaping up as one of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests this fall, according to Decision Desk HQ.
President Trump endorsed Biggs after initially backing businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who dropped out of the race in February to avoid a costly primary fight. Trump’s shift to Biggs — a vocal ally who has echoed the president’s unfounded claims of fraud in the 2020 election — underscores the former president’s continued sway over the GOP base. Hobbs, meanwhile, ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Cook Political Report Shifts Race Toward Democrats
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently moved the Arizona governor’s race from “toss up” to “lean Democratic,” citing Hobbs’s fundraising edge and relatively strong approval ratings. The assessment places Hobbs as “the most endangered Democratic incumbent” governor this cycle, though analysts note that other competitive races — like the open seat in Wisconsin — are rated toss-ups, while Michigan’s open seat leans Democratic.
“With an environment that’s favoring Democrats and a potentially polarizing and deeply conservative nominee in Rep. Andy Biggs, a 2020 election denier, this is a contest Republicans sound less optimistic about,” Cook analysts wrote.
Hobbs first gained national attention as Arizona secretary of state during Trump’s baseless claims of widespread voter fraud after the 2020 election. She won the governor’s office in 2022 by defeating Trump ally Kari Lake, marking the first Democratic victory in the state’s top job in nearly two decades. For more on the broader Arizona primary landscape, see our coverage of the Arizona Primary Night: DDHQ Data Nerds Deliver Real-Time Results.
Biggs’s Record and Stance on Election Integrity
Biggs has been a staunch Trump supporter since entering the House in 2017. He challenged the 2020 election results in Arizona even as he won reelection on the same ballot. He is a co-sponsor of the SAVE America Act, a Trump-backed priority aimed at overhauling federal election laws. His primary victory came in a state where Trump won in both 2024 and 2016, reinforcing the GOP’s reliance on the former president’s base.
Despite Trump’s earlier support for Schweikert in congressional races, the president’s endorsement proved decisive in the gubernatorial primary. The race also featured a separate contest for secretary of state, where election denier Mark Kolodin won the GOP nod, as detailed in our report on the Election Denier Kolodin Wins Arizona GOP Primary for Secretary of State.
Democratic Governors Association Sees Opportunity
The Democratic Governors Association quickly went on the attack after Biggs’s win. Executive director Meghan Meehan-Draper issued a statement calling Biggs “too extreme for Arizona” and warning that his “extreme agenda” prioritizes “powerful insiders first at the expense of everyday Arizonans.” She added, “Even his own party is warning he’s too extreme for Arizona, and we’re going to ensure he’s rejected at the ballot box in November.”
Hobbs’s campaign is expected to highlight Biggs’s role in challenging the 2020 election and his alignment with Trump on issues like election security and immigration. The governor has also emphasized her record on education funding and water policy, aiming to appeal to moderate and independent voters who helped her win in 2022.
With control of the governor’s mansion in a key battleground state at stake, both national parties are likely to pour significant resources into the race. The outcome could have implications for redistricting, voting rights, and the 2028 presidential contest. For more on the primary dynamics, see our analysis of the Arizona GOP Primary: Biggs vs. Schweikert Battle to Challenge Hobbs.
Updated at 11:42 p.m. EDT.
