President Trump’s sweeping allegations of Chinese interference in the 2020 election, delivered in a primetime address Thursday, conspicuously omitted any threat of retaliation against Beijing. The absence of punitive measures underscores the administration’s effort to maintain a delicate truce ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected state visit to Washington in two months, analysts say.
Some experts suggest Trump may have held back because the intelligence doesn’t back his claims. A 2021 report concluded that China did not directly interfere in the election, though it sought to influence voter preferences. Trump himself stopped short of accusing Beijing of altering votes or outcomes.
“Trump has clearly calculated that this gambit, however unsubstantiated with respect to China, is not going to be so significant as to blow up the rapprochement,” said Mira Rapp-Hooper, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution focusing on Asian security.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed to NBC News that Xi’s September visit remains on schedule. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian dismissed Trump’s accusations as baseless but declined to say whether Xi might reconsider the trip. “We urge the U.S. to stop framing China for election purpose and act in ways conducive to China-U.S. relations,” Lin said.
In a conciliatory gesture, the Trump administration allowed a 2020 sanctions package over Hong Kong to expire on Friday—a move China’s Ministry of Commerce called a key step in advancing trade ties. The development comes as Trump faces internal GOP skepticism. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), whom Trump backed a primary challenger against, said the president’s revelations offered nothing new and questioned why he was revisiting claims from six years ago. “The bottom line is none of this would have changed the outcome. I don’t get it,” Cornyn said at the Aspen Security Forum.
Trump also criticized former officials for not raising alarms during his first term, though his then-national security adviser had warned Reuters about Chinese influence ahead of the 2020 elections. The president’s approach contrasts with hawkish Republicans in Congress who view China as America’s top adversary. Notably, the administration’s National Defense Strategy and National Security Strategy avoid labeling China a “strategic competitor,” instead seeking a “balance of power” and “stable peace.”
Ryan Haas, director of the China and Taiwan studies programs at the Brookings Institution, posted on X that Beijing will likely see Trump’s accusations as a “passing storm cloud.” He noted Trump avoided naming Xi personally and didn’t announce new penalties. “Until/unless Trump’s allegations are followed by personalized attacks against Xi and/or major punitive steps against China, I suggest treating this as an instance of Trump instrumentalizing China to advance a specific objective,” Haas wrote.
The split-screen moment was stark: While Trump focused on 2020 grievances, Xi pitched China as a leader in global AI governance at a Shanghai conference. Rapp-Hooper said the contrast shows U.S. chaos has real-world costs, pointing to a Pew survey where China overtook the U.S. in global favorability in over 80% of countries polled. “In any other circumstance, that would have been Washington’s role to play,” she said.
As Trump’s approval rating lingers in the 30s and his SAVE America Act stalls in the Senate, the president’s China gambit appears more about domestic politics than foreign policy. Yet with Xi’s visit still on track and trade gestures underway, the fragile truce holds—for now.
