Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is in a commanding position for reelection, according to a recent survey of likely voters in the Keystone State. The poll, conducted by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena University, shows Shapiro with a 16-point lead over his Republican opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity.
The survey found that 55 percent of respondents back Shapiro, while 39 percent support Garrity. Six percent either chose neither candidate or declined to answer. The margin of error is 4.6 percentage points, underscoring the strength of Shapiro's position.
Shapiro's advantage cuts across a wide swath of the electorate. He leads among men and women, as well as among white voters, Black voters, and all four age groups tracked in the poll: 18-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65-plus. His edge is particularly pronounced among college-educated voters, where he leads by 34 points, while he holds a narrower 4-point lead among those without a degree.
The data also reveals a stark racial divide in educational attainment. Among nonwhite voters without a college degree, Shapiro leads by a staggering 72 points. In contrast, Garrity edges out Shapiro by 5 points among white voters without a degree.
Shapiro's current standing mirrors his 2022 victory, when he defeated Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano by nearly 15 points. Since then, Shapiro has been a prominent figure in national Democratic politics, emerging as a finalist in Vice President Kamala Harris's search for a running mate in the 2024 presidential election. Harris ultimately chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and the Democratic ticket lost to President Trump and Vice President Vance.
Looking ahead, Shapiro has not ruled out a bid for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. At the National Action Network convention in April, he described the party's ongoing internal debate as "healthy" and expressed his desire to be part of it. "What I can tell you for sure is that I want to be a part of that debate," he told the Rev. Al Sharpton.
The poll also tested Shapiro's standing among Democrats for a potential 2028 primary. Among a smaller subset of 296 respondents, 47 percent said they would be "very likely" to support him, while 39 percent said they were "somewhat likely." Only 9 percent said they were "not too likely," and 4 percent said "not at all likely."
Shapiro's popularity in Pennsylvania could have broader implications for the party as it seeks to rebound from recent losses. His ability to attract support across demographic groups, including among nonwhite voters without college degrees, may offer a template for other Democrats. However, his data center policies have drawn criticism from free-market advocates, a potential vulnerability in a general election.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 17-21 among 760 likely voters. As the campaign season intensifies, Shapiro's double-digit lead suggests he remains a formidable incumbent, though Garrity's campaign will likely focus on mobilizing white voters without college degrees, where she currently holds an edge.
