With just days until the Nov. 3 midterms, election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball adjusted its ratings for two Senate contests, moving both in Democrats' favor. The nonpartisan outlet announced Friday that Minnesota's race has shifted from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic," while Louisiana's contest has moved from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican."
In Louisiana, Republican Rep. Julia Letlow, who has President Trump's endorsement, faces Democrat Jamie Davis. Despite the rating change, Decision Desk HQ, The Hill's election forecasting partner, still gives Letlow an 88 percent chance of victory. Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik wrote that Letlow "could be in a tighter-than-expected race," pointing to early voting data from Louisiana-based conservative pollster John Couvillon showing "excellent Black voter turnout."
Minnesota's Senate race features Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor, running against Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster. Recent polling shows Flanagan with a double-digit lead, and Decision Desk HQ gives her an 85 percent chance of winning. Kondik acknowledged that Flanagan is underperforming "the margin one might otherwise expect a Democrat to get in a light blue state in a blue wave environment," but questioned whether she could actually lose. "But is she really going to actually lose to former sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R)? The chances of that seem smaller than what a Leans Democratic rating conveys," he said.
The adjustments come as Democrats seek to expand their Senate map beyond traditional battlegrounds. Recent surveys indicate Democratic candidates leading in Kansas and Maine, suggesting a widening playing field. Meanwhile, Republicans are grappling with challenges in several states, including a redistricting gambit in Missouri that has backfired into election chaos.
With Crystal Ball's latest changes, its Senate projection stands at 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans, and five toss-ups. The forecaster plans to release its final forecast on Monday.
Both parties are intensifying their efforts in the closing days. President Trump and Vice President Vance are fanning out across the South in a final push, while Democrats are deploying legal teams to key races, as seen in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom warned against interference.
The shifting ratings underscore the fluid nature of the midterm landscape, where late-breaking developments and turnout dynamics can reshape races. In Minnesota, Flanagan's strength in a blue-leaning state appears to be solidifying, while in Louisiana, Letlow remains the clear favorite despite signs of energized Democratic voters.
As the campaigns enter their final weekend, all eyes will be on these and other competitive Senate contests that will determine control of the chamber. Crystal Ball's final forecast, due Monday, will provide the last snapshot before voters head to the polls.
