South Carolina's Republican Senate primary is shaping up as a two-way contest between Representative Ralph Norman and Senator Darline Graham, according to a new Emerson College poll released Thursday. Norman leads with 22 percent support among likely GOP voters, followed closely by Graham at 19 percent, in the race to fill the seat left vacant by the sudden death of former Senator Lindsey Graham.
The poll, conducted July 28-29, shows a crowded field with a quarter of voters still undecided. Representative Russell Fry trails with 12 percent, former Representative Mark Sanford—who entered the race last week—stands at 11 percent, businessman Mark Lynch at 7 percent, and businessman Danny Ford II at 2 percent. Twelve candidates have filed for the special primary election scheduled for August 11.
Norman draws his strongest support from voters under 50 (24 percent) and those in their 50s (25 percent). Graham, who was appointed to serve the remainder of her brother's term, finds her base among older voters: 30 percent of her supporters are over 70. The survey of 500 likely GOP primary voters has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
President Donald Trump's endorsement of Graham has not swayed a majority of the electorate. Fifty-three percent of respondents said the endorsement made no difference to their support, while 29 percent said it made them more likely to back Graham. Trump had encouraged Graham to run for a full term, calling her a “true American Patriot.”
The race comes after Lindsey Graham died earlier this month from an aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease at age 71. His funeral at the U.S. Capitol Rotunda drew bipartisan attendance, including Trump and Vice President JD Vance. World leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also honored him at Washington National Cathedral. Trump and Vance led the farewell, and a Capitol memorial service highlighted his bipartisan ties.
An overwhelming majority of likely special election voters—88 percent—believe Senate candidates must participate in a debate before the primary. Only 12 percent consider a debate unnecessary, signaling strong demand for face-to-face exchanges in a race that has yet to see one.
The Emerson poll, sponsored by Nexstar, follows other competitive Senate primary polls in the region, underscoring a volatile primary season. With less than two weeks until the special election, both Norman and Graham are vying to consolidate support among the undecided quarter of the electorate, while Sanford's late entry could shake up the dynamics.
