A fresh survey from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media Iowa indicates that Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand holds a narrow lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the race for Iowa governor, while Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is ahead of Democrat Josh Turek in the state's open Senate contest.
The poll, conducted August 31 through September 1, shows Sand with 49 percent support among likely voters, compared to Lahn's 46 percent, with 6 percent still undecided. This race will determine who succeeds term-limited Governor Kim Reynolds, a Republican who has dominated Iowa politics for years.
Sand's candidacy is notable because he is the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, giving his party a rare opportunity in a state that has backed Donald Trump in all three of his presidential runs. Trump initially endorsed Representative Randy Feenstra in the Republican primary but later switched his support to Lahn.
In the Senate race to replace retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst, Hinson leads Turek 50 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided. This marks a two-point gain for Hinson since August, while Turek's support has remained steady.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted that about six percent of voters are splitting their tickets, supporting both Hinson and Sand. "Independent voters break for Sand over Lahn by a 12-point margin, 51 percent to 39 percent, while Turek leads Hinson by two among this group, 46 percent to 44 percent," Kimball said.
The tight races come amid President Trump's approval rating in Iowa, which sits eight points underwater at 44 percent. That is better than his national rating, which Decision Desk HQ estimates at roughly 18 points underwater. Voter frustration over Trump's economic policies and his support for data center construction has been a factor.
Last month, Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for both races toward Democrats. The governor's race moved from a "toss-up" to "lean Democratic," with the handicapper calling Sand "one of the strongest campaigns in the country this cycle." The Senate race shifted from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" amid a "uniquely challenging" environment for the GOP. Similar competitive dynamics are playing out in other states, including Massachusetts, where the governor's race is also drawing national attention.
Decision Desk HQ also views the Senate race as a toss-up, with a slight Republican edge, and the governor's race as a toss-up but with Democrats narrowly favored. The survey included 750 voters and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
