A fresh survey conducted by The Glengariff Group for the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan reveals a sharply divided electorate just days before the state's Senate primary. The poll shows former Representative Mike Rogers, the presumptive Republican nominee, holding a commanding 10-point lead over progressive Abdul El-Sayed, with 11% of voters still undecided in that head-to-head matchup.
In a direct contest against Representative Haley Stevens, Rogers trails by a single point—46% to 45%—well within the survey's 4-point margin of error, effectively making the race a toss-up. Nine percent of respondents remained undecided in that scenario. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the open seat as a “toss up,” and Republicans are eager to flip the seat vacated by retiring Senator Gary Peters.
The primary, set for Tuesday, has pitted Stevens, a centrist backed by Governor Gretchen Whitmer and other party leaders, against El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director who has drawn support from Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Whitmer's endorsement of Stevens underscores the party establishment's view that Stevens is the more electable candidate against Rogers.
The Glengariff Group's data also highlights stark demographic divides. Among independent voters, Stevens and Rogers are nearly tied, with 40% and 39% support respectively. But Rogers leads El-Sayed by a massive 28 points among independents. Stevens also holds a 31-point advantage over El-Sayed among Black voters.
Recent polling has shown Stevens gaining ground, though some Democratic-aligned surveys still show El-Sayed performing better. The latest numbers are likely to intensify pressure on the party to consolidate behind Stevens, especially given concerns that a weaker nominee could hurt Democrats' chances in November. Rogers narrowly lost to Senator Elissa Slotkin in 2024, and party strategists worry that El-Sayed's progressive platform could alienate swing voters.
The two Democrats faced off in their second one-on-one debate Monday evening, trading familiar attacks on corporate influence and Israel policy. The debate highlighted the sharp ideological divide within the party, with Stevens emphasizing her record of bipartisanship and El-Sayed pushing for a more aggressive progressive agenda.
With the primary just days away, the poll signals that the Democratic race remains fluid. Stevens's edge among key constituencies—independents and Black voters—may prove decisive, but El-Sayed's support from the party's left flank could keep the contest competitive until the very end.
