Sen. Ed Markey holds a commanding lead over Rep. Seth Moulton in the race for the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts' Senate seat, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling. The poll, released just days before Tuesday's primary, shows Markey with the support of 60.4% of likely Democratic primary voters, while Moulton trails at 32.8%. A further 6.7% remain undecided.
The findings reinforce the uphill battle Moulton, a 47-year-old congressman, faces in his bid to unseat the 80-year-old incumbent. Markey, a progressive stalwart and co-author of the Green New Deal, has consistently held a double-digit lead in public polling throughout the race. The winner of the primary is widely expected to win the general election in November.
A Clash of Generations and Ideology
Moulton has positioned himself as the candidate of generational change, arguing that the Democratic Party needs fresh leadership to confront the challenges of the Trump era. He has repeatedly questioned Markey's progressive credentials, suggesting that the senator has not been aggressive enough in pushing key priorities such as the Green New Deal or in opposing the administration's policies.
Markey, however, has pushed back by highlighting his role in drafting the Green New Deal and pointing to Moulton's past positions on issues including the Iran nuclear deal and transgender rights. The two candidates clashed in their final debate earlier this month, with Moulton seeking to cast Markey as an establishment figure out of step with the party's grassroots energy.
Markey's campaign has also received a boost from high-profile endorsements, including from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a fellow progressive who has championed the Green New Deal. That support has helped solidify Markey's standing with the party's left wing, a key voting bloc in Massachusetts primaries.
Endorsement Battle
The Boston Globe's editorial board, however, has thrown its weight behind Moulton, arguing that he "is promising that he can bring new vision and vigor to an aging, ailing, and deeply unpopular Democratic Party." The board acknowledged that Markey "still looks and sounds sharp, and that he brings much valuable experience to the table," but added that "this is no ordinary time."
Moulton's campaign has sought to capitalize on such endorsements, but the polling gap suggests that voters remain unconvinced. The Emerson College survey, conducted Aug. 28-29 among 550 likely Democratic primary voters, has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
The primary comes amid a broader national conversation about the Democratic Party's direction, with progressive challengers winning notable victories in other states. In Florida, for example, a progressive upset in the GOP primary has energized the left, while the party's leadership has been debating changes to the presidential primary calendar.
Moulton's long-shot bid may ultimately hinge on whether he can overcome the substantial deficit in the final days of the campaign. With early voting already underway, the outcome will be determined by which candidate can mobilize their supporters to turn out on Tuesday.
