A new survey from Focaldata and the Financial Times shows former Vice President Kamala Harris and Vice President JD Vance leading their respective parties' early 2028 presidential primary fields. Among Democratic respondents, 30% picked Harris as their preferred nominee, while 38% of Republican respondents chose Vance.
In the Democratic contest, California Governor Gavin Newsom followed Harris with 15% support. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg each drew 9%, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff received 8%. Fourteen percent of Democrats said they were undecided.
On the Republican side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio secured 24% support, trailing Vance by a significant margin. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. each polled at 9%, 7%, and 7%, respectively. Twelve percent of Republican respondents were unsure.
Vance has emerged as an early front-runner partly due to backing from President Trump's inner circle. Trump has repeatedly fueled a rivalry between Vance and Rubio for the 2028 nomination, and Vance has even joked that the competition resembles Trump's former reality show, The Apprentice. That dynamic has been central to what some see as Vance's early 2028 strategy.
Despite the speculation, Rubio has privately told donors and allies that he will not run, particularly against Vance, according to sources cited by The Hill. Vance himself told NBC News in October that he is focused on the 2026 midterms, saying, "That's what I'm going to keep on doing." His recent travel to Ohio to campaign for Senate candidate Bernie Moreno, as part of tightening Senate races, underscores that priority.
Harris, who lost to Trump in the 2024 election, has re-entered the political arena by appearing at campaign events in battleground states, including supporting Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. A longtime Harris donor told The Hill that "she's a smart woman and also isn't going to do something fruitless for no reason," suggesting she would only run if she sees a viable path.
Newsom has said he would skip the 2028 race if Harris runs, acknowledging they would compete for the same supporters. Ossoff has declared "zero interest" in a presidential bid, and Ocasio-Cortez said she will decide after the midterms.
The poll, conducted October 2-5 among 2,553 U.S. adults, did not report a margin of error. The Hill has reached out to Focaldata for that information.
