A fresh survey released on the eve of South Carolina's Republican Senate runoff shows appointed incumbent Darline Graham and challenger Ralph Norman locked in a statistical dead heat, setting up a cliffhanger finish as voters head to the polls Tuesday.
The Trafalgar Group poll, conducted Saturday through Monday, found 47.9 percent support for Graham among 1,031 likely GOP voters, while Norman drew 47.8 percent. Another 4.4 percent remained undecided, and the survey's margin of error was 2.9 percentage points—meaning the race is essentially tied.
The winner will face Democrat Annie Andrews, a physician, in November's general election. The two Republicans advanced to the runoff by finishing first and second in the August 11 primary, with Graham leading Norman by a narrow margin.
Graham, who was appointed by Governor Henry McMaster to fill the seat of her late brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, has leaned heavily on the backing of former President Donald Trump. Trump traveled to South Carolina last week to campaign for her, and his political action committee, MAGA Inc., has spent more than $827,000 to boost her candidacy. That support is being closely watched as a test of Trump's influence in a closely contested Republican primary.
Norman, a conservative congressman, has hammered Graham's relative lack of experience in public office. He seized on her admission during a debate that she was "not that informed on national security" when asked about Taiwan and the South China Sea—a comment that drew sharp criticism from foreign policy hawks.
"Contrary to my opponent, foreign policy and national security is a top concern," Norman said Monday on Fox Business's The Bottom Line, underscoring his focus on international affairs as a key differentiator.
Graham has countered that her priorities lie closer to home, emphasizing kitchen-table issues over geopolitical flashpoints. "I think people in South Carolina are more worried about making ends meet," she said last Wednesday on Fox News's Hannity. "So, they are concerned about a lot of other things other than Taiwan."
Trump has defended Graham's stance, saying she is being "honest" and that she is focused on "the price of groceries." That message appears to resonate with many voters, but Norman's campaign has also attracted support from fiscal conservatives, including former Governor Mark Sanford, who endorsed Norman citing concerns about the national debt.
The outcome of Tuesday's runoff will signal whether Trump's endorsement remains decisive in Republican primaries, especially in a state where he remains popular. It will also determine the GOP's standard-bearer in a race that could be competitive in November, though South Carolina's Republican lean gives the party an advantage.
As polls open, both campaigns are urging their supporters to turn out, with the undecided bloc likely to play a decisive role. The winner will be the Republican nominee, and the result will be closely watched by national political observers as a barometer of the party's direction.
