A Gallup survey released Wednesday reveals that voter enthusiasm for returning incumbents to Congress has fallen to unprecedented levels, just days before the midterm elections. According to the poll, only 43% of registered voters believe their own representative merits another term, the lowest figure Gallup has recorded since it began tracking this measure in 1994. Previously, the lowest support for one's own representative was 50%.
Even more striking, just 15% of voters think most members of Congress deserve reelection, also a record low in Gallup's data. This reflects a broad disillusionment with the institution as a whole, even as some voters may still back their local lawmaker.
The partisan breakdown shows notable differences. Among Republicans, 51% say their own representative deserves reelection, compared with 45% of Democrats and 36% of independents. When asked about most members of Congress, the gap widens: 29% of Republicans support reelection of incumbents, versus 11% of Democrats and just 9% of independents.
Gallup notes that the poll does not identify whether respondents are represented by a Republican or Democrat in the House, so the data cannot determine which party's incumbents face greater voter opposition. That ambiguity adds a layer of complexity to interpreting the results.
The survey arrives amid a broader political climate of discontent. President Trump's approval ratings have hit new lows in recent polls from The New York Times/Siena College and CNN, and congressional approval is also suffering. Only 14% of Americans approve of the performance of the 119th Congress, the lowest Gallup has recorded ahead of a midterm election since 1974. The only time approval dipped lower was 9% in 2013, during a government shutdown.
Partisan divisions are stark on this front as well: 29% of Republicans approve of Congress's job performance, while just 4% of Democrats do. This chasm underscores the polarized political environment heading into the elections.
The findings echo broader concerns about democratic integrity and voter confidence. A separate survey found that half of voters fear the GOP could illegally overturn midterm results, reflecting heightened anxiety about the electoral process.
Gallup's results are based on telephone interviews conducted October 1-19 with a random sample of 1,200 U.S. adults, including 1,057 registered voters. The margin of error is approximately 4 percentage points at a 94% confidence level.
As the midterms approach, these numbers signal a challenging environment for incumbents across the board, though the data does not necessarily predict which party will benefit from voter discontent. The record-low support for reelection, combined with low congressional approval, suggests that voters are looking for change, even if they are not sure which direction.
