Nonpartisan forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball has shifted 16 House races toward Democrats in the final week of the campaign, the latest indicator of a deteriorating political climate for Republicans as Election Day approaches.
The University of Virginia's Center for Politics project has moved dozens of races toward Democrats in recent weeks, with nearly 50 changes in October alone. The latest adjustments include moving several solidly Republican districts into the competitive “toss-up” category, including open seats in Kentucky and Montana and GOP-held districts in Missouri, Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. Many of these seats were carried by Donald Trump by double digits in 2024.
One notable shift came in Texas's 15th Congressional District, which moved from toss-up to “leans Democratic.” There, Republican Rep. Monica de la Cruz faces a strong challenge from Tejano musician Bobby Pulido. Unlike other South Texas districts where Democrats are defending redrawn seats, the 15th is a GOP-held seat that Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2024.
In Pennsylvania, two Republican-held seats—the 1st and 8th districts—joined two other competitive races in moving toward Democrats. Crystal Ball now suggests Democrats could gain as many as four House seats in Pennsylvania alone, more than the three needed to flip the chamber. The forecaster has already given Democrats the edge in enough seats to take control, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, puts the Democratic odds of a House majority at 80 percent.
Beyond the House, Crystal Ball also shifted three Senate races and two gubernatorial contests in Democrats' favor. The Florida Senate race moved from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican,” with early voting numbers cited as encouraging for Democrats. In South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham's bid for a full term moved from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” after polls showed a tighter-than-expected race against Democrat Annie Andrews.
In North Carolina, the Senate race moved further toward Democrats, from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” The state remains Democrats' best pickup opportunity, with Gov. Roy Cooper leading in the open-seat contest. Crystal Ball's Kyle Kondik and Miles Coleman noted that while polls show a close race, Democrats are ahead. “As of this point, we are thinking the Democrats have the inside track to a Senate majority, albeit narrowly at 51 or 52 seats,” they wrote. “But these races are all close, and we want to take in all of the final information before pushing the remaining Toss-ups.”
Crystal Ball is one of the only major forecasters to push all its toss-up races toward one party before Election Day. DDHQ gives Democrats a 57 percent chance to control the Senate.
In gubernatorial races, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs's reelection bid shifted from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” while Vermont Gov. Phil Scott's race moved from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.” Vermont is typically solidly Democratic, though Scott, a moderate Republican, has won easily in the past. Recent polls suggest a competitive race, including a State Navigate poll released Tuesday showing Scott up by just 3 points among likely voters.
The shifts come as Democrats have also been targeting GOP incumbents on technology policy in key districts, and as Trump has conditioned his acceptance of midterm results on election integrity concerns. With the final stretch underway, the forecasters' moves underscore the mounting challenges for Republicans in defending their House majority.
