The disclosure that a purported polling firm released fabricated surveys in two high-profile races has intensified scrutiny of an industry already wrestling with credibility challenges.
Median Strategies, which had published polls showing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass leading a progressive challenger and a Wisconsin state legislator ahead in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, admitted this week that the results were not genuine. The firm described the releases as part of a “social experiment” and urged that they not be cited as legitimate data.
The admission comes on the heels of widely publicized polling errors in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary and Wisconsin's gubernatorial contest, further complicating efforts to restore public faith in survey research.
Ben Leff, CEO of the polling firm Verasight, called the revelation “very shocking, but unfortunately not surprising.” He noted that while the industry and media are accustomed to poorly conducted surveys, “this was sort of the extreme of that, where everything was completely fake.”
The polling industry has faced persistent criticism over its accuracy, particularly after President Trump outperformed expectations in 2016, 2020, and 2024. However, those misses were attributed to methodological challenges, not deliberate fabrication.
Median's fake polls, by contrast, were intentionally deceptive. The firm first released a survey in the Los Angeles mayor's race, showing Bass with a 12-point lead over Councilmember Nithya Raman. Bass touted the result in a now-deleted post on X. After the admission, her campaign called for any “bad faith attempts to influence elections” to be “investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.” Raman's campaign criticized Bass for promoting a “fake poll without properly vetting the source.”
A second fabricated poll showed Wisconsin state Rep. Francesca Hong leading the Democratic gubernatorial primary by 20 points. Hong, a democratic socialist, ultimately lost the primary in an upset. The poll's results were broadly consistent with other surveys, though public polling in the race was sparse in the final weeks.
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, said the incident could reinforce perceptions that polls are unreliable. “I understand why, say in the aftermath of 2016, people have that attitude,” he said. “That is concerning, that it sort of adds fuel to the fire of 'The polls are worthless,' 'The polls are meaningless,' 'They're not even real'-kind of conversation.”
Median's website claimed the operation was designed to test how quickly unverified polling information could spread through the political ecosystem. The Guardian identified the source as 21-year-old Rahil Prakash, a recent college graduate, who said he was inspired by the Michigan Senate polling miss to see if fake polls could “penetrate the ecosystem” easily. He expressed surprise at how fast the information spread and apologized to the affected campaigns.
Experts remain skeptical about the stated motive, noting potential political or financial incentives. The rise of prediction markets, where bettors wager on election outcomes, could create such incentives. Prakash said he placed no bets. Skelley noted that while fake polls have been used before to manipulate prediction markets, they rarely looked as credible as Median's operation.
The incident underscores the need for media outlets and the public to verify polling sources. As the midterm elections approach, the integrity of polling data will be crucial in shaping expectations and voter behavior.
