A fresh Suffolk University survey released Tuesday shows Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by 7 percentage points in Michigan, with 47% of likely voters backing El-Sayed and 40% supporting Rogers.
The poll, conducted September 16–20 among 500 likely Michigan voters, carries a margin of error of about 4.4 percentage points. It underscores a steady advantage for El-Sayed, who has edged ahead in other recent surveys, including a 3-point lead in a Washington Post poll and a 2-point edge in an Emerson College poll earlier this month.
Partisan lines remain sharply drawn: 81% of Democrats back El-Sayed, while 90% of Republicans support Rogers. But the Democrat’s strength among independents is striking. Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos noted that El-Sayed holds a 16-point advantage with unaffiliated voters.
“Abdul El-Sayed is popular with unaffiliated Michigan voters,” Paleologos said in a statement. “That, in addition to the unpopularity of recent tariffs imposed on Canada and voter unhappiness over the possibility of data centers in Michigan, has caused a massive shift to Democratic candidates among independents compared to 2024.”
El-Sayed also performs better among younger voters, women, and Black voters, while Rogers leads among older voters, men, and white voters. The demographic splits suggest a coalition that mirrors recent Democratic successes, but with room to grow.
With just six weeks until the midterm election, El-Sayed has intensified his campaign. Last week he traveled to Washington, D.C., to meet with senators on Capitol Hill. On Tuesday, former Vice President Kamala Harris is set to appear alongside him at a campaign event in Detroit.
In an interview with NewsNation, The Hill’s broadcast partner, El-Sayed said he aims to broaden his coalition to include voters who backed Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
“She speaks to a community of people I really want to make sure we are speaking to,” El-Sayed said. “I want to be able to build the kind of coalition that includes Vice President Harris, that includes Bernie Sanders, and that brings folks together around what we can build together.”
The race has drawn national attention, with Rogers facing a narrowing path as El-Sayed holds the Michigan edge. Recent developments, such as El-Sayed saying MAGA is “eating itself” after Carlson backed him over Rogers, have further animated the contest.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates are expected to ramp up appearances and spending. The Suffolk poll is the latest sign that Michigan’s Senate seat could flip in November, a prospect that would reshape the balance of power in Washington.
