Democrat Don Leonard is projected to win Ohio's 15th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), defeating incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Carey and handing Democrats a key pickup in a district that has been in GOP hands for more than a decade.
With 91% of ballots counted as of 10:37 p.m. EST, DDHQ projected Leonard would beat Carey by nearly eight percentage points. The result marks a significant breakthrough for Leonard, a professor at Ohio State University who entered his first congressional race hoping to channel voter frustration over the rising cost of living into electoral success.
Carey, a former coal lobbyist who first won the seat in a 2021 special election with then-President Trump's endorsement, saw his five-year tenure in Washington come to an end. He had comfortably won reelection twice, most recently defeating his Democratic challenger by roughly 13 points in 2024.
But Democrats saw an opening in the Columbus-area district as they sought to expand the House battlefield beyond traditional swing seats. Leonard's campaign centered on affordability and healthcare access, often highlighting his own upbringing in a financially struggling family.
Leonard's background is unconventional for a politician: he served in the Peace Corps in South America and holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University before becoming a professor of city and regional planning at Ohio State. He won the Democratic nomination in May, defeating former state Rep. Adam Miller.
Carey campaigned on his congressional experience, including his seat on the House Ways and Means Committee, and his alignment with Trump's agenda. Despite the district being rated "likely Republican" by DDHQ heading into Election Day, Leonard's message resonated with voters.
This upset is part of a broader trend of Democratic gains in previously safe GOP areas. In a similar development, Knickerbocker flipped a longtime GOP seat in Ohio, ousting another incumbent. Democrats also saw wins in Wisconsin's 1st District and Pennsylvania's congressional race, signaling a possible wave.
With Leonard's victory, Democrats are chipping away at the Republican majority, and the party's leadership is already vowing to use its new leverage to counter GOP probes, as noted in Johnson's concession and pledge.
The Ohio 15th result underscores the political volatility of the current cycle, as economic concerns continue to shape voter behavior in districts that were once considered safe for Republicans.
