The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 11 additional House races toward Democrats this week, a sign that the midterm battlefield is expanding into GOP territory. The moves, which target several districts carried decisively by President Donald Trump, come as Democrats show renewed competitiveness in areas that have not been on the party's radar in recent cycles.
Among the notable changes, Republican Representatives Brad Finstad (Minn.), Mike Turner (Ohio), and Mike Carey (Ohio) saw their races move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Two open seats—New York's 21st and South Carolina's 1st—also shifted in that direction, according to the Cook report.
Further down the rating scale, GOP Representatives Derek Schmidt (Kan.) and Mike Flood (Neb.) had their districts downgraded from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. An open seat in Florida's 16th district, currently held by the GOP, likewise became more competitive.
Perhaps most striking is Montana's open 1st District, which Trump carried by 12 points in 2024. That race moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up, a dramatic shift that underscores the changing political environment.
For Democrats, two incumbents—Greg Landsman (Ohio) and Jared Moskowitz (Fla.)—saw their districts move further left. Republicans had redrawn both districts ahead of the midterms, hoping to make them easier to flip, but the latest ratings suggest those efforts may be backfiring.
The Cook report's U.S. House editor, Erin Covey, noted that outside spending is a key indicator of where both parties see opportunities. "These races are now seeing heavy outside investment from House Majority PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc.'s super PACs, a sign that both sides view these contests as competitive," Covey wrote.
Unlike the 2018 midterms, when Democratic gains were concentrated in areas won by Hillary Clinton, the party's current path to a majority runs through Trump-won districts. Many of the seats now shifting toward Democrats are in places the president carried by double digits in 2024, including the Montana seat and several in the Midwest.
This trend aligns with broader polling that shows younger voters drifting back to Democrats as the GOP struggles on affordability and other kitchen-table issues. It also comes amid concerns about election security, with suspicious packages targeting election offices in multiple states.
The Cook report's moves follow a similar shift in governor's races, where four gubernatorial contests tilted toward Democrats recently. With the midterms just weeks away, the ratings underscore how the political ground has moved under the GOP, forcing the party to defend turf it once considered safe.
