Arizona moves its primary to July 30 this year, a shift from the usual August date, after state lawmakers passed legislation in February to allow more time for general election preparations. The earlier contest sets the stage for high-stakes races for governor, statewide offices, and several competitive congressional seats that could tip the balance of power in Washington.
The Republican primary for governor has effectively become a two-man race between Rep. Andy Biggs and Rep. David Schweikert, with Biggs holding a double-digit lead in public polling. Developer Karrin Taylor Robson initially entered the race and secured former President Donald Trump's endorsement, but after Trump also backed Biggs, she dropped out in February. Two other businessmen, Ken Miceli and Scott Neely, remain in the contest but are considered longshots.
Whoever emerges from the GOP primary will face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November. Hobbs narrowly defeated Kari Lake in 2022 and has since become a focal point for Republican criticism, having vetoed hundreds of bills passed by the Republican-controlled legislature, including measures on diversity, equity, and inclusion, and election-related conspiracy theories. However, Hobbs points to her record, including signing an $18.3 billion state budget with a $1.4 billion tax cut.
Biggs, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, has consolidated support from conservative activists like the late Charlie Kirk and his wife Erika Kirk. He campaigns on cutting waste and fraud and eliminating the state income tax, but Democrats are attacking him for his efforts to challenge the 2020 election results. The race will test whether election denialism remains a winning issue for Republicans in Arizona, a state that has been ground zero for such claims since Trump falsely claimed victory there in 2020.
Trump's endorsement power is on the line in several other contests. In the 1st Congressional District, he has backed former NFL kicker Jay Feely, who switched from running in the 5th District. Feely faces tech CEO John Trobough and former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik for the GOP nomination. The winner will take on the Democratic nominee in a district that is a key battleground for House control. In the 5th District, Trump has endorsed Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who is running against home construction businessman Daniel Keenan. Keenan has raised allegations of past sexual impropriety against Lamb, reported by The Arizona Republic, but Lamb's campaign denies any wrongdoing. The 5th District is safely Republican, so the primary winner is likely to head to Congress.
Beyond these races, the 6th Congressional District, held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani, is another toss-up. Ciscomani, a second-term Republican, faces only one Democratic challenger, former Marine Corps Drill Instructor JoAnna Mendoza, making the primary a formality. Trump won Ciscomani's district by less than a point in 2024, while he took Schweikert's seat by about 3 points, according to The Downballot. Both races are rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, and their outcomes will be critical in determining which party controls the House.
In Schweikert's 1st District, four Democrats are vying for their party's nomination: former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods, small business owner Rick McCartney, former state Rep. Amish Shah, and businessman Jonathan Treble. Shah ran unsuccessfully against Schweikert in 2024. The primary results will set up a general election that could be one of the most expensive and closely watched in the country.
Election denialism continues to shadow the GOP primaries. The state has seen a wave of candidates who embraced Trump's false claims about the 2020 election, including Lake, who lost her 2022 gubernatorial bid and later lost a Senate race. The primaries on Tuesday will signal whether voters still reward such positions, as several candidates have made election integrity a central part of their campaigns.
For more on related political dynamics, see our coverage of how Maine Secretary of State Bellows abruptly exited her Senate primary race and the RNC chair's comments on Democratic primary trends.
