Wisconsin voters headed to the polls Tuesday with control of the U.S. House hanging in the balance, and the state's 3rd Congressional District emerging as a premier battleground in Democrats' bid to flip the chamber.
Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden is locked in a rematch against Democrat Rebecca Cooke, a contest that has drawn national attention and heavy spending. The district, which covers the eastern part of the Badger State, is one of a handful of toss-ups that could determine whether Democrats net the 218 seats needed for a majority. For more on the national landscape, see our Harvard model's House odds.
Van Orden, a first-term incumbent and former Navy SEAL, has sought to tie Cooke to national Democrats' agenda, while Cooke has hammered the congressman over his controversial statements and voting record. The race is a sequel to 2024, when Van Orden defeated Cooke by a narrow margin. This time, both parties have poured resources into the district, recognizing its outsize role in the fight for the gavel.
Meanwhile, Republicans are defending an open seat in Wisconsin's 7th District after Rep. Tom Tiffany opted to run for governor rather than seek reelection. The sprawling northern district, which Tiffany has held since 2020, is traditionally Republican-leaning, but Democrats have signaled they will compete there, hoping to stretch the map and force the GOP to divert funds from more competitive races.
Polls close at 9 p.m. EST. Decision Desk HQ will provide live results as they come in. The outcomes in Wisconsin will be closely watched alongside other key states. For a broader view of the battlefield, see our Colorado House races live results and California's 2026 House races.
Democrats need to flip a net of just a few seats to reclaim the majority, and Wisconsin's 3rd is among their top targets. The party has also invested in other Midwestern battlegrounds, including Maine's key districts, where control of the House could ultimately be decided.
Van Orden's campaign has emphasized his military service and focus on border security, while Cooke has centered her message on abortion rights, economic opportunity, and what she calls Van Orden's extremism. The rematch has been marked by sharp exchanges and outside money, with both candidates trading accusations of carpetbagging and extremism.
In the 7th District, Republicans are expected to hold the seat, but the open nature of the race and Tiffany's gubernatorial ambitions have introduced uncertainty. Democrats have not seriously contested the district in recent cycles, but they hope a strong statewide turnout could put it in play.
As returns begin to filter in, all eyes will be on Wisconsin's 3rd District as a bellwether for the national mood. A win for Cooke would signal a strong night for Democrats; a Van Orden hold would bolster Republican hopes of retaining the House. Follow Decision Desk HQ's live results for up-to-the-minute updates.
