Secretary of State Marco Rubio emerged as the clear favorite among conservative activists at this weekend's Western Conservative Summit, winning a decisive straw poll that puts him 36 points ahead of Vice President JD Vance in the race for the 2028 Republican nomination.
The survey of more than 500 attendees at the Colorado gathering showed Rubio with 57% support, a commanding lead over Vance, who drew 21%. Former Vice President Mike Pence, libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rounded out the top five, though no other candidate reached double digits.
Beyond the horse-race numbers, the summit's attendees also expressed their overall approval of potential contenders. Only three Republicans earned majority approval: Rubio at 85%, Vance at 71%, and DeSantis at 55%. That suggests Rubio's appeal extends beyond the straw poll's top choice, positioning him as a unifying figure for the party's grassroots.
Greg Schaller, director of the Centennial Institute, which organized the event, framed Rubio's performance as a testament to his political career. "Secretary Rubio has earned this trust the hard way, and this Summit's grassroots are telling him, loud and clear, that they're behind him," Schaller said. He added that Rubio is "a leader who has spent his career defending the principles of faith, family, and freedom without wavering."
Neither Rubio nor Vance has formally declared a 2028 bid. Rubio told Vanity Fair last year that he would defer to Vance if the vice president seeks the nomination. However, his strong showing here, coupled with his national profile, could complicate that calculus.
Vance, for his part, has been noncommittal. In June, he said he would discuss a potential run with his wife, second lady Usha Vance, after the November midterms. The couple welcomed their fourth child last month. "The way I make decisions is, I try not to make them until I absolutely must," Vance told Robert Costa on CBS Sunday Morning.
President Trump has not endorsed anyone, but Vance revealed that Trump often brings up the 2028 race during their conversations, calling the president a "political animal." Trump has also floated the idea of a Vance-Rubio ticket, suggesting in June that the combination of Vance's populist appeal and Rubio's traditional conservative credentials would be "a great team." "I don't know how you beat them if they're together," Trump said on the New York Post's "Pod Force One."
The straw poll's results come as the GOP base weighs its options ahead of a wide-open primary. While early polls are often volatile, Rubio's dominance here signals that he remains a formidable force, despite his earlier deference to Vance. The coming months will test whether that grassroots energy translates into formal campaign infrastructure.
For now, the Western Conservative Summit has given Rubio a clear boost, and his team is likely to tout the result as evidence of his staying power. Meanwhile, Vance's camp may point to the vice president's institutional advantages and Trump's influence as the race evolves.
