Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) secured victory in Tuesday's Republican primary runoff for South Dakota governor, defeating businessman Toby Doeden, according to Decision Desk HQ. The win clears the path for Rhoden to face former state Sen. Dan Ahlers (D) in the November general election, a contest that heavily favors the incumbent given the state's deep Republican leanings.
The runoff was necessitated after the initial June primary failed to produce a candidate who reached the required 35 percent threshold. In that earlier vote, Doeden led the field with about 31 percent, while Rhoden trailed with 25 percent. The crowded primary also included Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) and state House Speaker Jon Hansen, neither of whom advanced to the runoff.
Rhoden assumed the governorship in January 2025 after former Gov. Kristi Noem stepped down to serve as Homeland Security secretary in the Trump administration. His ascent to the top office has been marked by a focus on conservative priorities, including tax cuts and energy policy, as the state navigates post-pandemic recovery and economic shifts.
Doeden, a businessman and political outsider, campaigned on a platform of fiscal restraint and challenging the establishment. Despite his strong showing in the initial primary, he failed to build enough momentum to overcome Rhoden's institutional support and name recognition as the sitting governor.
Johnson, who did not make a public endorsement, told KELOLAND that he was privately assisting one of the runoff contenders, though he did not specify which. Hansen has remained silent on the race since his primary loss, leaving the GOP base to split between the two candidates without clear direction from party leaders.
The general election is expected to be a low-key affair, with Rhoden holding a significant advantage in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the governor's office since 1978. Ahlers, a former state senator and educator, will need to overcome a massive partisan gap and limited name recognition outside Democratic circles.
Rhoden's victory also underscores the influence of national political dynamics, as South Dakota remains a stronghold for the Trump-aligned wing of the GOP. The governor has aligned himself with the administration's policies, including on border security and energy independence, which resonate with the state's conservative electorate.
Looking ahead, Rhoden's campaign will likely focus on touting his record and continuity with Noem's agenda, while Ahlers will attempt to highlight local issues like healthcare access and rural development. However, with the state's electoral map favoring Republicans, the outcome in November appears all but settled.
