The final stretch of the Alaska Senate race has been thrown into turmoil by allegations that Democrat Mary Peltola's campaign recruited spoiler candidates to siphon votes from Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. The controversy has intensified as the nation heads into Tuesday's midterm elections, with the outcome in Alaska now seen as increasingly uncertain.
Reports emerged last week that Peltola's team may have encouraged independent or third-party candidates to enter the race, a tactic critics call “ballot-stacking” designed to split the conservative vote under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system. The allegations have prompted swift reactions from both parties, with former President Trump accusing Alaska Democrats of voter fraud at the highest level and calling for Peltola to be barred from the ballot.
Republican Senator Rick Scott has urged the Department of Justice to investigate the alleged scheme, while Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy has ordered a state-level probe. Dunleavy's executive order directs state agencies to examine whether any laws were broken in the recruitment of candidates. Meanwhile, Senator Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican, has demanded Peltola answer for the allegations, pressing for transparency in a race that could determine control of the Senate.
The Hill's senior vice president of editorial content, Bill Sammon, and Decision Desk HQ's chief elections analyst, Geoffrey Skelley, will break down the implications during a live discussion at noon EDT. They will analyze the final forecast for Tuesday's elections, with a focus on how the Alaska controversy might affect national momentum.
Peltola, who won a special election in 2022 to become the first Alaska Native in Congress, has denied any wrongdoing. Her campaign has called the allegations a “distraction” and accused Sullivan's allies of manufacturing a scandal to undermine her support. Sullivan, a two-term incumbent, has not directly commented on the reports but has welcomed the investigations.
The controversy has also drawn attention to broader midterm dynamics. With control of the House and Senate hanging in the balance, every race matters. Democrats are eyeing oversight powers that could reshape policy battles, including on student loans, if they retain majorities. But the Alaska race could be a bellwether for voter sentiment on election integrity issues.
As Election Day approaches, the final forecast from Decision Desk HQ shows a razor-thin margin in Alaska, with Sullivan holding a slight edge but Peltola within striking distance. The ranked-choice system adds another layer of uncertainty, as voters' second and third choices could prove decisive.
Legal challenges are already brewing. The DOJ has filed a lawsuit over Alaska's election certification process, but the state's GOP administration has moved to dismiss that suit, arguing it is politically motivated. The legal wrangling is likely to continue even after the polls close, potentially delaying a final call in the race.
In the live discussion, Sammon and Skelley will also take questions from viewers, offering insights into how the spoiler-candidate allegations might sway undecided voters and whether similar tactics could emerge in other contests. The conversation promises to be a critical primer for what could be one of the most contentious election cycles in recent memory.
