A fresh Fox News poll shows Democrat Josh Turek holding a 4-point lead over Republican Representative Ashley Hinson in Iowa's closely watched Senate race, injecting new energy into Democratic hopes of flipping a seat that has been in GOP hands for a decade.
Released on Wednesday, the survey of 1,003 registered voters found Turek, a state representative and Paralympic gold medalist, taking 50 percent support against Hinson's 46 percent. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, giving Turek a statistically significant edge.
The race to succeed retiring Senator Joni Ernst—a two-term Republican who chairs the Small Business Committee—has become a key battleground in the fight for control of the Senate. Ernst is vacating the seat after declining to seek a third term, opening the door for a competitive open-seat contest in a state that has trended red in recent cycles.
Turek's lead widens among voters who say they are “extremely” motivated to vote in November, with the Democrat leading 56 percent to 41 percent in that high-turnout segment. The margin among those voters is 4 points, according to the poll conducted June 23-27.
Iowa has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Tom Harkin won reelection in 2008, and no Democratic presidential candidate has carried the state since Barack Obama that same year. But Turek's campaign has sought to build a coalition that includes disaffected Republicans and independents. “If you’re tired of this rigged system only looking out for billionaires and leaving the rest of us behind, then join us,” he said after his primary win last month. “Whether you’re a Republican, an independent or a Democrat, there is room here for you in our campaign.”
Hinson, who has represented Iowa's 2nd Congressional District since 2023 after redistricting shifted her from the 1st District, has the backing of both Ernst and former President Donald Trump. She has emphasized her support for Iowa farmers and accused Turek of backing policies that would hurt the agriculture industry. Iowa ranks third nationally in number of farms, trailing only Texas and Missouri, according to USDA data.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as “Lean Republican,” one step away from “Toss Up.” Still, Democrats see an opening. Turek, who has used a wheelchair since childhood and won two Paralympic gold medals, has focused his campaign on healthcare reform and agricultural issues.
Inflation and high prices topped voters' concerns, with 39 percent naming it the most important issue in their vote. Healthcare, immigration and border security, and political divisions also registered in double digits, per the poll.
Democrats have grown increasingly optimistic about their Senate prospects in several states. Recent polling shows competitive races in key battlegrounds, including Iowa. Turek's district, which Trump carried three times, could be a bellwether for whether Democrats can rebuild their coalition in the heartland.
