Polling analyst Nate Silver on Wednesday cast doubt on Democrat Graham Platner's prospects of unseating Senator Susan Collins in Maine, pointing to a recent survey that suggests his advantage is shrinking. The Public Policy Polling survey, released Wednesday, shows Platner with a 4 percentage point lead over the incumbent—a narrower margin than previous public polls had indicated.
“An internal poll showing +4 is not super reassuring given that internal polls typically exaggerate their candidate’s standing by 4 points or so,” Silver wrote on X, formerly Twitter. He added that the lead is “smaller than Platner’s lead in most public polls before.”
Silver’s skepticism is rooted in Maine’s recent electoral history. In a Monday analysis, he noted that Collins trailed former state Representative Sara Gideon in nearly every poll ahead of the 2020 election, only to defeat her by 8.6 points. That result, Silver said, “made for one of the largest polling errors in our extensive polling database.”
Part of that unexpected shift, Silver explained, stemmed from Collins's vote against confirming Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a Trump nominee. Since then, Collins has continued to distance herself from the former president, a tactic that may resonate with moderate Maine voters. “Since 2014, in Maine races with two or more polls in the final three weeks, Republicans have beaten their polls by about 4 points on average,” Silver wrote.
Despite Silver’s doubts, Platner has projected confidence. “Susan Collins is spineless and corrupt. And in 153 days, we will defeat her,” he posted on X. However, his campaign has been roiled by controversy. A Wall Street Journal article revealed that Platner had sexted women other than his wife in 2023, a scandal that has drawn national attention. His meeting with Senate Democrats on Tuesday was intended to shore up support amid the fallout.
Platner retains key endorsements from Senators Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Sanders, in particular, has publicly dismissed the sexting scandal as a private matter. Sanders continues to defend Platner, arguing that the focus should remain on policy differences with Collins.
Silver’s analysis underscores a broader challenge for Democrats in Maine, where Collins has proven resilient despite the state’s shifting political landscape. The race is being closely watched as part of the battle for Senate control. Democrats are weighing the risks in Maine against potential gains in other states, such as Iowa.
Political observers note that Platner’s campaign controversies—including past remarks and the sexting revelations—could further complicate his path. A memo from his campaign, however, touts strong polling and fundraising numbers, arguing that the storm can be weathered. The memo insists grassroots support remains solid.
With 153 days until the election, the Maine Senate race remains a toss-up, but Silver’s warning adds a note of caution for Democrats hoping to flip the seat.
