A fresh Marquette Law School Poll shows the Wisconsin governor's race in a statistical dead heat, with Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany each drawing 44 percent support among registered voters. The survey, conducted Aug. 12-20, underscores the competitiveness of the race in a state that remains a pivotal presidential battleground.
Among the 891 registered voters surveyed, 12 percent remained undecided. However, the dynamics shift when looking at likely voters: Crowley leads Tiffany 49 percent to 44 percent, with 7 percent undecided. That gap falls within the poll's margin of error for that subgroup (4.5 percentage points), but it hints at a possible Democratic advantage in turnout.
Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, secured the Democratic nomination earlier this month by defeating democratic socialist Francesca Hong in the primary. His victory was seen as a win for the party's establishment, with outgoing Gov. Tony Evers (D) backing Crowley and helping him overcome Hong's progressive challenge. The result was a setback for the left wing of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin.
Tiffany, a state senator and former congressman, cruised to the Republican nomination in his primary a few weeks ago, consolidating conservative support without serious opposition.
Election handicappers have taken note of Crowley's momentum. Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the race from a toss-up to "leans Democratic" following the primary, reflecting the belief that Crowley's coalition and the state's recent Democratic trends give him an edge. Still, the new poll suggests the race remains competitive, and both campaigns are likely to pour resources into the state.
The poll's findings come amid broader national attention on Wisconsin, where control of the governor's mansion could have significant implications for redistricting, voting laws, and the state's role in the 2028 presidential election. The state has been a focal point for both parties, with recent polling showing Democrats trusted more on cost-of-living issues, which could play in Crowley's favor.
National Democrats have been closely watching the race, and some see parallels to other competitive gubernatorial contests. The outcome could also affect legislative dynamics in Madison, where the governor holds veto power over a Republican-controlled legislature.
For Republicans, Tiffany's path to victory will likely hinge on turning out rural and exurban voters while limiting Democratic margins in Milwaukee and Madison. Crowley, meanwhile, will need strong urban turnout and support from suburban moderates who have drifted from the GOP in recent cycles.
The Marquette poll, which surveyed 738 likely voters, has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points for that group. The full results offer a snapshot of a race that is far from settled, with both candidates having clear paths to the governor's office.
As the campaign heads into the fall, expect both sides to sharpen their messages on the economy, education, and abortion—issues that have proven potent in Wisconsin. The state's status as a swing state ensures national attention will remain fixed on this contest.
