NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki said Wednesday that Minnesota's closely watched Senate race may be tilting toward the Republican nominee, as Democrats face headwinds from a sprawling Medicaid fraud scandal.
“There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats,” Kornacki said on the “Today” show, pointing to the political fallout from the fraud case that has engulfed the state government.
The Democratic candidate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, is running against Republican Michele Tafoya, a former state auditor. Tafoya has hammered Flanagan over her role in the administration that failed to prevent what prosecutors estimate was up to $9 billion stolen from Medicaid programs.
Kornacki noted that Republicans have long sought to flip Minnesota's Senate seat, which has been in Democratic hands for decades. “What they think is working in their favor here is there’s a state scandal about Medicaid fraud,” he said. “The governor, Tim Walz, didn’t run for reelection because of it — this is his lieutenant governor.”
During a debate last week, Tafoya attacked Flanagan's record, saying: “Listen, it is rich to hear my opponent talk about lost access to programs when under her watch, as second in command of this state, Minnesota saw billions and billions and billions of fraud dollars walk out the door to fraudsters while Medicaid was gutted.”
Flanagan defended her actions, noting that she supported the creation of an independent inspector general and backed harsher penalties for fraud. “The governor said that more should have been done and more should have been done sooner, and I agree with him,” she said. “But I supported the independent office of inspector general. I also supported harsher penalties.”
Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, abandoned his reelection bid earlier this year amid scrutiny of his administration's handling of the fraud. The scandal has become a central issue in the Senate race, with Tafoya seeking to tie Flanagan to the failures.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted its rating for the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” on Tuesday, reflecting the growing GOP momentum. Despite that, Flanagan has maintained a slight edge in some polls, including a 4-point lead in a Minnesota Star Tribune survey released earlier this month, though that margin is within the poll's error range.
Political analysts say the race could be a bellwether for the national midterm environment, where Democrats are already facing an uphill battle. Recent polling has shown Democrats widening their midterm lead nationally, but Minnesota's unique dynamics may offset that trend.
As Election Day approaches, both campaigns are focusing on fraud and accountability. Tafoya is betting that voters will punish Flanagan for the scandal, while Flanagan is trying to pivot to her reform efforts. The outcome could hinge on whether voters see the fraud as a systemic failure or a personal one.
