With less than two weeks to go before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats have opened a double-digit lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to a new CNN/SSRS survey released Wednesday. The poll shows 49% of registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate in their district, versus 39% for the Republican — the widest Democratic margin in that poll since just before the 2020 cycle.
The advantage is being driven by core Democratic constituencies. Black voters back Democrats by a 70-point margin, and Latino voters by 40 points. Even among voters who cite the economy as their top issue — traditionally a Republican strength — Democrats hold a 46% to 37% edge, and are seen as better equipped to handle both the economy and the cost of living.
The survey also asked what would happen if Democrats took back Congress: 41% said the country would be better off, 37% worse, and 22% saw no difference. That optimism aligns with recent forecast shifts. Sabato's Crystal Ball, the nonpartisan handicapper, has moved 28 House races toward Democrats, and its updated projections now put the party above the 218 seats needed for a majority. Decision Desk HQ, which partners with The Hill, gives Democrats a 77% chance of winning the House and a 55% chance of flipping the Senate.
President Trump's approval rating has sunk to a record low of 32% in the same poll, one point below its previous floor in September. His standing has deteriorated sharply following his authorization of strikes on Iran, which triggered Tehran's effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and sent gas prices soaring. Despite attempts to ease prices — including a controversial Russian diesel deal — the national average for a gallon of regular gas hit $4.26 on Wednesday, about $1.21 more than the same time last year, according to AAA.
The political environment has become so favorable for Democrats that even traditionally safe Republican seats are now in play. The party's improved standing is also visible in Crystal Ball's updated House ratings, which moved 28 races in their direction. Meanwhile, a Democratic super PAC has dropped $1.2 million into the Mississippi Senate race, signaling confidence in expanding the map.
The poll's findings come as early voting is already underway in many states, and a federal judge has allowed North Carolina's strict mail-in ballot rules to stand for this election, a decision that could affect turnout in a key battleground. With control of both chambers on the line, the next two weeks will test whether Democrats can convert their polling edge into actual seats.
The CNN/SSRS poll was conducted October 15-18 among 1,701 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
