The Republican Party's once-solid support for Israel is showing deep cracks, especially among younger conservatives who are coming of age in a different political and media environment. This shift, which has been building for years, is now impossible for party leaders to ignore.
A recent New York Times/Siena poll found that 72 percent of Republicans under 30 believe President Trump has been too supportive of Israel, while only 11 percent of those over 65 share that view. Even among young evangelicals, historically the most staunchly pro-Israel group, less than one-third now favor Israel over the Palestinians. This divide has been glaring since the start of the Iran War, which younger Republicans support at only half the rate of their elders.
The political formation of young conservatives is increasingly happening online, where figures like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon have challenged the traditional pro-Israel consensus. Notably, a significant number of Republican staffers in Washington follow white nationalist streamer Nick Fuentes, and the political director of the College Republicans of America is an avowed fan. Meanwhile, Ben Shapiro, once a darling of the young right for his unyielding support of Israel, has seen a dramatic drop in YouTube viewership.
But these online battles are a symptom, not the cause, of the conservative turn. An analysis of Reddit's r/conservative subreddit found that negative comments on Israel-related posts averaged around 40 percent even before October 2023. Carlson and Candace Owens, both popular podcasters on the right, turned against Israel long before the first U.S.-Israel-Iran war. The base's shift, in other words, predates the recent backlash over Israel's alleged role in Trump's war on Iran.
The reasons for this change are varied. Among young evangelicals, support for Israel plummeted from 75 to 33 percent between 2018 and 2021 and has stayed low since. This is partly theological: younger pastors have largely moved away from the millenarian prophecies that drove Christian Zionism. My clustering algorithm showed that less than five percent of conservative commenters focus on religious ties. Antisemitism also plays a role, with a Yale poll finding that two-thirds of self-described 'extreme conservatives' hold antisemitic views. The 'Groyper' trolls who dominate the internet's darker corners have revived old anti-Jewish conspiracies, and news of mounting anti-Christian attacks in Israel has fueled narratives of a perpetual war between Jews and Christians.
Yet the shift is not purely domestic. Young Americans have grown up during a succession of right-wing Israeli governments that openly reject a two-state solution and have done little to counter accusations of widespread discrimination and apartheid. Fewer than one in ten young Americans back Israel's actions in Gaza, a rare consensus in an age group otherwise polarized along gender and party lines. For a generation tired of foreign engagements, America's special relationship with Israel feels like an anachronism. Among the Redditors in our dataset, concerns over Israel's political influence also played a role, heightened by Netanyahu's role in the Iran war.
The MAGA establishment, hesitant to break with Trump, has been slow to respond. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was the lone Republican vote for an amendment blocking military assistance to Israel. Florida gubernatorial candidate James Fishback, whose campaign mixed anti-Israel sentiment with nativist rhetoric, finished a distant third in his primary. As with immigration and trade a decade ago, Republican elites lag far behind the younger base on Israel.
There are signs leadership is catching up. JD Vance, the likely 2028 frontrunner, has hinted at daylight between himself and Trump on Israel. AIPAC backing is increasingly a liability on the right. Trump has reportedly worried he will be the last pro-Israel U.S. president. Many young conservatives are hoping he is right.
This generational shift could have profound implications for U.S. foreign policy, especially as the party's rising stars navigate the tensions between traditional allies and a restive base. The debate over Israel is no longer a settled question on the right, and the outcome will shape America's role in the Middle East for years to come.
