Fox News has shifted its midterm forecast, now projecting that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives in November. It marks the first time this election cycle that the network has predicted a Democratic victory in either chamber of Congress.
In his latest power rankings released Tuesday, Fox News contributor Rémy Numa wrote that "combined with Democrats' candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year." The analysis gives Democrats 219 seats, enough for a slim majority, while Republicans are projected to hold 198, with 18 races still considered toss-ups.
Numa noted that if Democrats have a strong night, they could expand their majority to around 237 seats—a gain of 22 from their current standing. He explained that "toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party's direction in previous elections," suggesting a potential wave. A "great night" for Democrats could push them to 249 seats, while a GOP sweep of the toss-ups would leave Republicans with 216 seats, just short of a majority and giving Democrats a mere two-vote cushion.
The forecast attributes the shift to voter frustration over rising costs. "Voters keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them," Numa wrote, citing higher gas, diesel, and grocery prices as key drivers. This aligns with recent polling that shows economic concerns dominating the midterm debate, as voters say Congress is out of touch on affordability issues.
In the Senate, the picture remains murkier. Fox's rankings show both parties favored to win 47 seats, with Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas as toss-ups. Democrats would need to win most of those to secure a majority, but Numa noted that a GOP path to victory still exists. He also highlighted a shift in Minnesota, where Republican Michele Tafoya has narrowed the gap against Democrat Peggy Flanagan, though Flanagan still leads 47-43. The state has moved from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat." Numa noted that while partisans are largely locked in, independents remain divided: 38% back Tafoya, 32% support Flanagan, and 29% are undecided.
The Fox News forecast aligns with other election analysts. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gives Democrats a 77% probability of winning the House, projecting them to hold 235 seats to Republicans' 200. However, the Senate race is closer, with DDHQ showing a 56% Democratic probability and Republicans holding 49 seats in that scenario.
The shift comes amid broader political dynamics, including Democrats widening their favorability and economic trust advantages over the GOP in recent Gallup polling. Still, some Republican strategists point to outside spending and grassroots enthusiasm as potential game-changers. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has warned that a GOP cash flood could sink Democrats' Senate hopes, underscoring the uncertainty that remains just weeks before Election Day.
With control of both chambers on the line, the final stretch promises intense competition. While Fox's House forecast is a notable shift, the Senate remains a coin flip, and both parties are bracing for a volatile finish.
