A high-stakes legal clash over the regulation of prediction markets is forging an unusual alliance of commercial gaming operators, tribal nations, and labor unions, all pushing back against platforms they say are operating as unlicensed gambling operations.
The dispute centers on whether event contracts—wagers on outcomes like elections or sports—should be treated as financial derivatives under federal oversight or as gambling subject to state and tribal laws. The coalition argues that prediction markets are essentially gambling and must comply with existing state and tribal regulations, while the platforms and the Trump administration contend they are legitimate financial instruments overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
This battle has escalated through the courts, with conflicting appellate rulings prompting New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court in early September. The coalition has filed amicus briefs in support, backed by 39 state attorneys general, the American Gaming Association (AGA), and 145 federally recognized tribes.
The partnership marks a significant shift, as commercial and tribal gaming interests have historically been at odds. David Bean, chairman of the Indian Gaming Association (IGA), acknowledged this during a joint appearance with AGA President Bill Miller at the Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas late last month. “We weren’t always welcome in Las Vegas,” Bean said, crediting former IGA Chairman Ernie Stevens for forging a relationship with the AGA despite past hostility.
James Siva, chairman of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association, called prediction markets “the catalyst” for demonstrating shared interests. “Having those two gentlemen share the stage and be aligned on this issue… showed how important this is,” he said, noting the unprecedented unity between the two largest gaming associations.
The coalition has also drawn in labor unions, which see prediction markets as a threat to gaming industry jobs. UNITE HERE, which represents casino workers, joined the AGA and IGA in a June letter urging senators to ban event contracts tied to sports and casino-style gaming. The letter warned that prediction markets have fueled “the largest expansion of gambling in U.S. history” without voter or legislative approval.
UNITE HERE President Gwen Mills appeared alongside Miller at the expo, where he welcomed her as the “most recent addition to this formidable coalition.” Chris Cylke, AGA’s senior vice president of government relations, said it “wasn’t a hard sell” to bring unions on board, given the industry’s role as a major employer with a unionized workforce.
The union-tribal relationship has its own complexities, particularly in California, where past disputes over sovereignty and organizing rights have created friction. Aamir Deen, a UNITE HERE organizer, acknowledged the history but stressed that on prediction markets, “there’s a great deal of common ground.”
As the legal fight intensifies, the coalition is preparing for a prolonged battle, with millions of dollars at stake. The Supreme Court’s decision on whether to hear the case could have sweeping implications for the future of betting in the United States, potentially reshaping the regulatory landscape.
