Ukraine is staring down an unsettling prospect: sustaining its defense against Russia with a diminished and unpredictable American partner. This week's disruptions in U.S. military support—ranging from satellite connectivity to intelligence sharing—have forced Kyiv to confront whether it can hold the line without the full backing of President Trump's administration.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has intensified his diplomatic pushback, accusing the White House of throttling access to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network and failing to provide advance warning of Russian strikes. While U.S. weaponry continues to reach Europe, the reliability of that pipeline is now in question.
Starlink slowdown: Who pulled the plug?
The exact source of the Starlink service disruption remains murky, but Reuters reported Thursday that the order to limit the system came from within the White House, with Defense Department officials told to slow the service. Trump denied any involvement on Friday, telling reporters, "I didn't do that. No, we didn't do that at all." Musk, whose SpaceX operates Starlink, has also distanced himself, noting that Starshield—a government-controlled variant—is managed by the U.S. military.
Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor at UC San Diego, said the episode underscores a widening rift that endangers Ukraine and virtually ensures the war drags on. "This hurts Ukraine in more ways than just limiting its ability to operate on the frontlines," he said. Slantchev blames the Pentagon for the disruption, which he says emboldens Russian President Vladimir Putin, who "estimates that the U.S. under Trump is on his side."
The slowdown, which affected Starshield on Tuesday, has already had tactical consequences. Serhii Beskrestnov, a defense tech adviser to Zelensky, said SpaceX imposed speed limits overnight without warning, leading to "the failure of a number of missions." Zelensky called it a "big mistake" and warned that Ukrainian lives were at risk.
Trump's pivot on Russia
The Starlink controversy is part of a broader shift in U.S. policy. Trump recently lifted sanctions on Russian oil sales, a move that provides Moscow with a financial lifeline even as it struggles on the battlefield. The decision, likely driven by domestic diesel prices, has drawn criticism from Zelensky, who said he feels betrayed. Trump responded with threats to cut off intelligence sharing and called for Zelensky's replacement.
Washington insists intelligence sharing continues, but Ukraine's lack of warning about Russian ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv on Tuesday suggests otherwise. The U.S. has provided satellite and communications intelligence to Ukraine for over four years, and any gap is deeply concerning.
War's grim trajectory
Slantchev argues that the disruption "essentially guarantees that the war will continue," as Ukraine's ability to incapacitate Russia's offensive capabilities is severely hampered. "Ukraine is not going to lose the war because of limited Starshield connectivity, but it makes Ukraine's task much, much harder," he said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries, breaking a self-imposed pause at Trump's request. Moscow has continued to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, leaving civilians facing a harsh winter. The energy truce has collapsed, and Kyiv is signaling it will no longer hold back.
The breakdown in trust has also sparked calls from some GOP senators for a probe into the Pentagon's role in the Starlink cutoff, while others warn of congressional consequences if the U.S. abandons Ukraine. The coming months will test whether Washington's support is merely inconsistent or permanently withdrawn.
