President Trump is closing out the midterm campaign with a stark warning: Democratic control of Congress would plunge the United States into the kind of violent unrest now gripping France. At a rally in Kansas on Monday, Trump pointed to the protests and riots across the Atlantic as a preview of what could happen domestically if voters hand Democrats majorities on Capitol Hill.
“To see what is at stake in this election, just look at what’s happening in France,” Trump told supporters. Vice President Vance echoed the message on Monday, sharing a video on X of a 150-year-old town hall in France engulfed in flames. “I pray that France, a beautiful country of amazing people, will stop this madness before more of its landmarks burn,” Vance wrote. “And I hope Americans are paying attention. This is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country.”
In the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump elaborated on the French unrest, which began as student protests over teacher shortages and poor school conditions but has since spread and spawned fringe riots. He blamed immigrants for the violence. “If you don’t get that out, and you’re going to have to remove the people, you’re going to have to remove those people that are insurrectionists,” Trump said, drawing a contrast with his own hardline border policies.
While the message may energize Trump’s conservative base, it risks alienating independent voters who are frustrated with the economy under unified Republican control. “It’s somewhat delusional, even dangerously delusional to think that a riot in France will supersede the economic needs and priorities of Americans two weeks out from an election,” one Republican strategist said. The strategist spoke on condition of anonymity to candidly assess the party’s closing argument.
Republican candidates, meanwhile, are trying to keep their messaging focused on the economy and distance themselves from Trump’s least popular policies. “All Republicans need to be focused on restoring confidence with swing voters who are abandoning the party due to our failure to focus on economic issues,” said Paul Shumaker, a North Carolina-based Republican strategist. “Failure to do so will lead to much disappointment on election night.”
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday found that 68 percent of respondents, including 37 percent of self-identified Republicans, disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. The same survey put Trump’s overall approval rating at a record low of 31 percent. Despite those numbers, Trump continues to tout his economic record, including the One Big Beautiful Bill—also known as the Working Families Tax Cut Act—and on Monday announced an $8 billion relief program for farmers hit by high diesel prices.
Trump indicated that the French protests will remain part of his economic messaging in the final stretch. “When I go to North Carolina, today I’m going to be speaking about it. But Europe has to change its ways or you’re not going to have Europe left,” he told reporters before a rally in Greenville. The White House defended the president’s warnings. Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said Trump’s message is nothing new and is intended to protect the U.S. “These destructive policies have made once-great European cities unrecognizable—allowing crime and antisemitic violence to run rampant and posing an unsustainable cost on social safety net programs,” Kelly said. “The president saved the United States from such destruction when he was elected, and he has rightfully warned Americans of the chaos that awaits if Democrats allow the same radical left lunatics to wreak havoc on our communities.”
Trump also sees the European unrest as an opening to highlight his immigration record. During a rally in Ohio, he attacked the Somali community in Minnesota and the Haitian community in Springfield, Ohio. Such dark rhetoric is familiar: in 2015, he accused Mexican migrants of being “rapists” and bringing drugs and crime. He similarly warned of a migrant caravan before the 2018 midterms and attacked demonstrators after George Floyd’s killing in 2020.
While that approach has mobilized MAGA voters in the past, polls suggest Trump and his party could be headed for significant losses in two weeks. “Trump’s instinct, of course, is to scare people,” said Republican strategist Rob Stutzman. “When you are at record low disapproval ratings, there probably isn’t much point in being aspirational.” With the president’s approval at 31 percent and economic discontent widespread, the French riots may prove a tough sell to voters more concerned about their pocketbooks than Parisian streets.
