With the midterm elections fast approaching, the cost of living has become the dominant concern for American voters, and President Trump's tariffs are increasingly seen as a drag on their wallets. Combined with rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, the president's trade policies have become a political liability that could shape the outcome of the November races.
Historically, tariffs have ranked low on voters' list of priorities, largely because post-war tariff levels were so modest that consumers barely noticed them. That has changed dramatically. A recent survey by the Cato Institute and Morning Consult found that 75 percent of respondents say tariffs will be important to their midterm vote, with 35 percent calling the issue "very important."
The same survey underscores how far Trump's views are from the mainstream. Seventy-four percent of respondents said tariffs have raised prices at the store, and 53 percent believe they have weakened the U.S. economy. Only 21 percent accept the president's claim that foreigners bear the cost of tariffs—a position contradicted by a New York Federal Reserve study attributing 2.9 percentage points of goods price inflation to Trump's duties.
Despite these numbers, Trump has shown no sign of backing down. He continues to argue that trading partners have exploited American openness, and that tariffs are essential to shrink the trade deficit and revive manufacturing. Yet the results tell a different story. After he imposed duties of up to 50 percent on Chinese goods in 2018-19, the U.S. current account deficit tripled to $1.2 trillion by 2024, partly because China rerouted exports through Mexico, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian nations with lower tariff rates.
Last year, Trump expanded tariffs to virtually all trading partners to close those loopholes. But the merchandise trade deficit has widened again this year, after narrowing in 2025. The overall goods and services trade gap in August reached its highest level since March 2025, when companies rushed imports ahead of tariff implementation.
Why haven't tariffs reduced the imbalance? A working paper from the Baker Institute for Public Policy points to two factors: First, higher tariffs, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risk have shifted imports away from China toward Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea. Second, the massive U.S. infrastructure and artificial intelligence boom is fueling a surge in demand for imported computing equipment and components.
Given these dynamics, it's hard to see how tariffs can shrink the external deficit while the AI buildout accelerates. The private sector's savings surplus, historically 2 to 3 percent of GDP, is likely to narrow as AI companies borrow heavily. Offsetting that would require a smaller federal budget deficit, but no such fiscal adjustment is on the horizon.
Meanwhile, Congress is beginning to reassert its constitutional authority over trade. The Trade Review Act of 2025, introduced by a bipartisan group including Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), would require the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of imposing tariffs and would make new tariffs expire after 60 days unless Congress explicitly approves them.
Senate Democrats have gone further. A proposal by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) would require congressional approval for new tariffs and trade agreements, and would create a bipartisan Joint Committee on Tariffs and Trade. Other measures seek to rescind tariffs on Canadian goods and terminate the administration's Section 301 forced-labor tariffs.
The midterms could give this push added momentum. If Democrats take control of Congress, they will face pressure to repeal Trump's tariffs. Evidence suggests voters in industrial swing states and border districts with Canada favor repeal. A recent Wall Street Journal survey found that 58 percent of blue-collar workers oppose the tariffs, and those workers favor Democrats by 12 percentage points.
This political landscape differs sharply from 2020, when Joe Biden avoided alienating labor unions that supported Trump's tariffs. It also gives congressional Republicans reason to reconsider their unwavering support for the president's trade policies. As Trump's midterm bargains—from dividend checks to disaster aid—show, he is willing to spend political capital on economic appeals, but tariffs may be one promise he cannot keep without paying a price at the ballot box.
Nicholas Sargen, Ph.D., an economic consultant affiliated with the Darden Business School, notes that the current environment is ripe for a shift. "The question is whether Congress will finally step in to reclaim its role," he said. The answer may come as soon as November.
