Early voting is already underway in a number of states, and the battle for governor is taking shape as a central front in the 2026 midterms. With 36 gubernatorial contests on the November ballot, Decision Desk HQ's latest forecast, updated Oct. 18, gives Democrats the edge in 21 of those races, while four remain too close to call.
Here's a closer look at the seven races that could reshape state-level power and set the tone for the next two years.
Georgia: A historic bid and a self-funded challenger
In Georgia, Republican nominee Rick Jackson, a billionaire health care executive, spent nearly $100 million of his own money to secure his party's nod, defeating Lt. Gov. Burt Jones by a 53% to 47% margin. But DDHQ's forecast currently shows Jackson trailing Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, with Bottoms holding a 55% to 45% advantage.
If elected, Lance Bottoms would make history as Georgia's first female and first Black governor—and potentially the first Black woman elected governor anywhere in the United States. A victory would also break a long Democratic drought in the Peach State, where the party hasn't won the governor's mansion since Roy Barnes in 1998.
Ohio: A marquee matchup with national firepower
Ohio's race pits Democrat Amy Acton, a former state health director, against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur and political newcomer. DDHQ's forecast gives Acton a 60% chance of winning, a notable edge in a state that has trended Republican in recent cycles.
The contest has drawn heavy national attention. Former President Trump rallied for Ramaswamy in Youngstown on Oct. 12, while former President Barack Obama is scheduled to campaign alongside Acton and Senate candidate Sherrod Brown in Cleveland on Oct. 24. If Acton prevails, she would be the first Democrat to win Ohio's governorship since Ted Strickland in 2006.
Nevada: The tightest race in the country
Nevada is shaping up as the closest governor's race nationwide. Incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, with DDHQ giving Lombardo a slim 51% win probability.
Ford has hammered Lombardo on the rising cost of living and his alignment with Trump. A dominant issue in the state is the proliferation of data centers, which has become a flashpoint given that roughly 80% of Nevada's land is federally owned, limiting local control over development.
Iowa: A Democratic upset in the heartland?
Iowa hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Chet Culver in 2006, and the party's only statewide officeholder is State Auditor Rob Sand. Sand is now running for governor against Republican Zach Lahn, and DDHQ's forecast gives Sand a surprisingly strong 73% win probability.
Sand has campaigned as a pragmatic, anti-corruption reformer, and his lead in the polls suggests that Iowa's Republican lean may be less solid than in recent years.
Michigan: An all-female ticket and a GOP drought
In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the clear favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. DDHQ's forecast gives Benson a 76% chance of defeating Republican Rep. John James.
Benson's running mate, state Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks, would make it Michigan's first all-female gubernatorial ticket. Republicans haven't won the governor's office in the state since 2014, and the party faces an uphill climb in a state that has swung Democratic in recent cycles.
New York: Hochul's comfortable lead
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is a heavy favorite over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with DDHQ giving her a 91% win probability. The two met in their only scheduled debate on Oct. 13, where they clashed over immigration, Trump, and the cost of living—issues that have defined the race.
Hochul's incumbency and the state's Democratic lean make this race largely a formality, though Blakeman has tried to tap into suburban discontent.
California: A Latino first and a GOP long shot
In California, Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, faces Republican Steve Hilton to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. Becerra would become California's first Latino governor since the late 1800s, a historic milestone in a state with a large Latino population.
No Republican has won the governor's office in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger, and DDHQ's forecast gives Becerra a 96% win probability over Hilton. The race is not competitive, but its outcome will cement Democratic control of the nation's most populous state.
As the midterms approach, these seven races offer a snapshot of the national political landscape. Democrats are defending gains in blue and purple states, while Republicans are looking to break through in places where they've struggled. With early voting already underway, the next few weeks will determine which party emerges with momentum heading into 2027.
