A fresh survey from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia indicates that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a comfortable lead over his Republican challenger, Rep. Mike Collins, in Georgia's high-stakes Senate race. The poll, released this week, shows Ossoff capturing 48 percent of likely voters, while Collins trails with 40 percent, and 12 percent remain undecided.
Ossoff's advantage is driven by strong support among women, younger voters, and Black Georgians, according to the poll. Collins, meanwhile, leads among voters aged 65 and older and among white voters. The numbers suggest that Ossoff, who is seeking a second term after his narrow 2020 runoff victory, has maintained the coalition that propelled him into office, even as President Trump carried Georgia in 2024.
The two candidates faced off in a debate earlier this month, where the conversation turned heated over the Jeffrey Epstein files, Trump's tariff policy, and the ongoing conflict in Iran. Collins used the stage to accuse Ossoff of benefiting from ads funded by a tech billionaire with alleged ties to Epstein. The billionaire has publicly denied any connection to Epstein beyond fundraising for MIT, stating he was "never a client of Epstein's and never had any engagement with him other than fundraising for MIT."
Ossoff fired back, highlighting Collins' votes against releasing the Epstein files in the summer of 2025. "Mike, who on your team advised you to raise the Epstein files? You voted to cover up the evidence," Ossoff said during the debate. "You should explain that vote to Jeffrey Epstein's victims right now."
In the gubernatorial race, the poll shows Republican Rick Jackson narrowly ahead of Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, 46 percent to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided. That margin is within the poll's 3.1 percentage point error margin, meaning the contest is effectively a dead heat. Bottoms holds a lead among independents, 43 percent to 38 percent, but a significant 18 percent of them are still undecided.
Both gubernatorial candidates are vying to replace outgoing GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who is retiring. The race is one of the most closely watched in the 2026 midterm cycle, as Georgia continues to be a battleground state.
Early voting turnout has been robust, with more than 188,000 Georgians casting ballots so far—about 50,000 more than the first day of early voting in 2022, according to the Georgia secretary of state's office. VoteHub attributes the surge to strong participation from Black voters, who account for over 36 percent of the votes cast on Tuesday.
The poll was conducted Oct. 7-15 among 1,000 likely Georgia voters, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
