A fresh survey from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia shows Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff with a solid advantage over his Republican challenger, Rep. Mike Collins, in the race for Georgia's Senate seat. Ossoff pulls 48 percent support among likely voters, while Collins trails at 40 percent, with 12 percent still undecided.
The poll, conducted Oct. 7-15 among 1,000 likely voters, carries a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Ossoff's edge is driven by strong backing from women, younger voters, and Black Georgians, while Collins holds leads among voters 65 and older and among white voters.
Ossoff is the only Senate Democrat seeking reelection in a state that Donald Trump carried in 2024, making his contest a key test of Democratic strength in the South. His path to a second term has been closely watched, and the new numbers suggest he has built a cushion—though with 12 percent undecided, the race is far from settled.
The two candidates squared off earlier this month in a debate that was marked by sharp exchanges. Collins accused Ossoff of benefiting from ads funded by a tech billionaire with alleged ties to Jeffrey Epstein—a claim the billionaire has denied, saying he was never a client of Epstein's and only interacted with him for MIT fundraising. Ossoff fired back, pointing to Collins's vote against releasing the Epstein files in 2025. "Mike, who on your team advised you to raise the Epstein files? You voted to cover up the evidence," Ossoff said. "You should explain that vote to Jeffrey Epstein's victims right now."
Meanwhile, in the race to succeed retiring GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, the poll shows Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in a statistical tie. Jackson leads 46 percent to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided—a margin well within the poll's error range. Bottoms holds a lead among independents, 43 percent to 38 percent, though a notable 18 percent of independents remain undecided.
The governor's race is one of the most closely watched in the 2026 midterms, with both parties pouring resources into the state. Early voting is off to a strong start: more than 188,000 Georgians have already cast ballots, roughly 50,000 more than on the first day of early voting in 2022, according to the secretary of state's office. VoteHub attributes the surge to Black voters, who account for over 36 percent of ballots cast so far.
With both races in flux, Georgia remains a battleground where turnout will likely decide the outcome. The Ossoff-Collins contest has drawn national attention, and Trump's recent visits to the state underscore the GOP's reliance on Collins to hold the seat. Meanwhile, Jackson's debate performance—including his unapologetic "shut up" remark—has energized his base, but the tight gubernatorial numbers suggest the race could go either way.
As Election Day approaches, both campaigns are focused on turning out their supporters. The early vote totals, particularly among Black voters, could be a bellwether for Democratic prospects in both races. For Ossoff, the poll offers a measure of comfort, but the undecided bloc remains a wild card. For Bottoms, the narrow gap means every vote will count.
