A fresh poll in one of Pennsylvania's most watched congressional battlegrounds shows Republican incumbent Scott Perry trailing his Democratic challenger, former news anchor Janelle Stelson, by a narrow margin.
The survey, conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research and released on Saturday, puts Stelson at 49 percent to Perry's 46 percent among likely voters in the state's 10th Congressional District. That three-point gap falls within the poll's 5.6-point margin of error, leaving the race effectively tied.
The 10th District, which includes Harrisburg and parts of York and Lancaster counties, is one of a handful of competitive House seats in Pennsylvania that could tip the balance of power in the U.S. House. Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, currently gives Stelson a 69 percent chance of flipping the seat.
This is a rematch of the 2024 contest, in which Perry narrowly defeated Stelson by just over one point, or roughly 5,000 votes. The two squared off this week in their only debate of the cycle, clashing over the Iran conflict, healthcare policy, and Perry's actions following the 2020 presidential election.
Perry voted against certifying President Biden's Pennsylvania win in 2020, and the FBI seized his phone as part of the investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. The former House Freedom Caucus chair has remained a staunch conservative voice, recently accusing the Senate of “dereliction of duty” for failing to pass a Trump-backed voting bill and co-sponsoring a measure to repeal the 17th Amendment, which would end direct election of senators.
Stelson, who spent over two decades as a reporter for NBC affiliate WGAL-TV in Lancaster, left the station in 2023 to launch her congressional bid. She has made Perry's record on abortion and his role in challenging the 2020 election central to her campaign.
The Susquehanna poll surveyed 300 likely voters in the district from Oct. 5-11, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The district's competitiveness is drawing national attention, with both parties pouring resources into the race. As Texas emerges as a key battleground elsewhere, Pennsylvania's 10th remains a critical test for Republican incumbents in suburban swing areas.
Perry's campaign has dismissed the poll as an outlier, pointing to internal numbers that show a tighter race. Stelson's team, meanwhile, sees the survey as confirmation of the momentum they've built. The outcome could hinge on turnout in the district's fast-growing suburbs, where moderate voters have shown increasing discomfort with Perry's hard-line positions.
With control of the House on the line, both parties are watching this race closely. The result may also be influenced by broader national trends, including recent judicial rulings in Pennsylvania and ongoing debates over election integrity. As the campaign enters its final weeks, the candidates are focusing on mobilizing their bases while courting the small slice of undecided voters who could decide the outcome.
