National Republicans have effectively pulled the plug on advertising in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, a stark signal that Rep. Thomas Kean Jr.'s (R) grip on the seat is slipping. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership, canceled its remaining ad reservations in the district last week, according to multiple reports.
The move comes as Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, has gained momentum in recent polls. Rutgers University pollster Ashley Koning described the CLF's decision as a "death knell" for Kean's campaign. "They are also trying to triage across the country and putting their money in races that they deem more winnable and don't necessarily see those same possible changes for Kean," she said, citing the broader political environment weighing on Republicans. Koning characterized his November prospects as "bleak."
Kean's campaign, however, insists the race remains competitive. Spokesperson Harrison Neely argued that Republicans are still "massively" outspending Democrats in the district. "This is still a very well-funded effort that will be at parity with our opponents," Neely said. "And historically, that hasn't been the case in this district, we've always been outspent."
The congressman's path to reelection has been complicated by his extended absence from Washington earlier this year. Kean missed more than 100 days of House votes, revealing only upon his return in June that he had been battling depression. His office had been tight-lipped about his whereabouts, citing a medical issue, which drew criticism from constituents and colleagues. Kean has also voted against paid sick leave legislation, a stance that has drawn renewed scrutiny given his own health struggles.
Campaign finance filings released last week show Bennett outraised Kean by over $2 million in the last quarter, though Kean retains a larger overall cash reserve heading into the final two weeks. Bennett's fundraising surge has given Democrats confidence in a district that has become a bellwether for suburban discontent with President Trump.
Michael Armento, a Republican town council member in Kean's hometown of Westfield who has campaigned with the incumbent, downplayed the CLF's pullout. He said the campaign told him in a closed-door meeting that the super PAC was merely "redistributing funds" and that the move did not reflect the race's true state. "His campaign feels very strongly they can win," Armento said.
Still, the political headwinds are formidable. Kean won reelection by 5 points in 2024, but Trump carried the district by just 1 point that same year. Koning noted that the president's sagging approval ratings, particularly among suburban voters, are working in Bennett's favor. "The demographic makeup of this district is also paralleling where we see suburban voters going nationally, leaning [away from] Trump and toward the Democratic Party," she said.
The 7th District, which stretches from affluent New York City suburbs to the Pennsylvania border, has been a Democratic target since 2018, when a Democrat first won it after four decades of Republican control. Kean flipped it back in 2022, but his hold has never been secure.
Bennett, who told the New Jersey Globe she feels optimistic, cautioned that the race is far from over. "The race is not done," she said. With Republicans still spending heavily in the district, the outcome may hinge on whether Kean can overcome his absence and the national mood. As Trump fatigue saps Republican enthusiasm in key suburbs, Kean's fate could mirror broader GOP struggles. Meanwhile, some Republicans privately oppose Trump's campaign visits, highlighting the party's internal tensions.
Top of the ticket offers little help: Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) is expected to cruise to reelection against Republican Justin Murphy. Kean's campaign insists he is "stronger than ever now and fully back to work," but with the CLF gone and Bennett's momentum, the congressman faces an uphill climb to keep his seat.
